Welcome back! We took a week hiatus from freesportsbet.com here at Win By Twofor two reasons. There was no interesting basketball untill Saturday of this past week due to final exams for the scholar athletes we love to watch and there were some great NFL lines that needed to be jumped on early. As a result, Win By Two's freesportsbet bankroll was essentially tied up the entire week in anticipation of today's games. We did pick up a win yesterday in a Cowboy thrashing of Tampa which starts us this week at (61-33-3) overall. Let's keep it rolling. As a disclaimer, some of these lines are different from where they are now becuase I took them early in the week.
Tom Brady -6.5 over Tim Tebow : I do not think this is the end of Timmy's magical run but it does get put on hold for one week. Broncos get behind and can't catch up.
Detroit Lions -1 over Oakland Raiders : I know my lions have not looked the best in recent weeks but the defense has eaten below average quarterbacks alive this year. Detroit has won every game this year in which they scored 20 points and I do not see Oakland holding them down.
Rounding out the lines for today are a few teasers headlined by the Patriots +3.5 and the Packers -3.5. I cannot see Green Bay letting the Chiefs stick around and likewise do not see the Broncs winning by a touchdown even if they do pull out the miracle upset. Sprnkled in with to two are the Titans +3.5 to keep the Colts defeated, the Lions over 37.5, and I also had the Cowboys getting a field goal last night.
Godspeed
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
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A late run and a couple of overs put in at the last minute, Syracuse and North Carolina, saved win by two from a losing Saturday. Congratulation to the #1 Orangemen, taking care of business while Ohio State was beat up in Phog Allen by the Jayhawks hot shooting and Kentucky lost a heart breaker in Indiana that included Tom Crean provided the most testosterone loaded reaction to a game winner ever. The running total is now (58-30-2) as we move onto Fantasy Football Playoff Sunday. As always follow me on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Denver Broncos -3 over Chicago Bears
I do not feel like I need to go into much detail on this one. The Broncos seem like the team of destiny and after crippling injuries, the Bears best offense player is now Marion Barber. Denver keeps rolling.
Miami Dolphins -3 over Philadelphia Eagles
I had this pick locked in before Michael Vick decided to come back, but I am going to stand by it. Miami is the best (4-8) team ever. Their defense can rush the passer, cover down field, and stop the run. Matt Moore and Reggie Bush have found who they are and are thriving. Most of all, the Dolphins actually want to play football and like their coach and the same cannot be said for the "Dream Team" from Philadelphia.
Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants over 50.5
I feel like no matter how they were playing prior to meeting, every time these two teams get together the yards and the points just seem to rack up. This will be a regular old Texas shootout.
In addition to these NFL games, I also set up a few teasers involving the Packers, Patriots, Saints, Lions/Vikings over, Chargers, and a couple teams mentioned above. Check out Freesportsbet.com for those.
Iona Gaels +1.5 over Marshall Thundering Herd
I couldn't go all of Sunday without picking one college basketball game. The Herd are a formidable opponent and the Gaels are in the middle of an absurd 40 day stretch between home games, but I am sticking with Iona. They are senior stocked, sport basically five double digit scorers, shoot over 50% as a team, and lead the country in points per game and assists per game. Love the Gaels.
Godspeed
Denver Broncos -3 over Chicago Bears
I do not feel like I need to go into much detail on this one. The Broncos seem like the team of destiny and after crippling injuries, the Bears best offense player is now Marion Barber. Denver keeps rolling.
Miami Dolphins -3 over Philadelphia Eagles
I had this pick locked in before Michael Vick decided to come back, but I am going to stand by it. Miami is the best (4-8) team ever. Their defense can rush the passer, cover down field, and stop the run. Matt Moore and Reggie Bush have found who they are and are thriving. Most of all, the Dolphins actually want to play football and like their coach and the same cannot be said for the "Dream Team" from Philadelphia.
Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants over 50.5
I feel like no matter how they were playing prior to meeting, every time these two teams get together the yards and the points just seem to rack up. This will be a regular old Texas shootout.
In addition to these NFL games, I also set up a few teasers involving the Packers, Patriots, Saints, Lions/Vikings over, Chargers, and a couple teams mentioned above. Check out Freesportsbet.com for those.
Iona Gaels +1.5 over Marshall Thundering Herd
I couldn't go all of Sunday without picking one college basketball game. The Herd are a formidable opponent and the Gaels are in the middle of an absurd 40 day stretch between home games, but I am sticking with Iona. They are senior stocked, sport basically five double digit scorers, shoot over 50% as a team, and lead the country in points per game and assists per game. Love the Gaels.
Godspeed
Saturday, December 10, 2011
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Now this is more like it. Today is jam packed with talented teams and intriguing match ups. I cannot wait to see what the Hoosiers are really about. Can Ohio State stamp out Kansas and cement themselves as the best team running? Can Cincinnati knock Xavier from the ranks of the undefeateds and out of the top 10 with a 20 point butt whooping like last year? After beating Tennessee two years in a row, can Oakland get on the map by beating Michigan? First Saturday college football is off might be my favorite of the year. After a (2-1) Friday, were up to (52-25-2) so were going to go after it with nine games today. As always, follow me on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports. First two games are absolute locks.
Creighton Blue Jays -2 over Saint Joseph's Hawks
Doug McDermott is my favorite player in college hoops this season. He can do it all and he will as Creighton continues their undefeated season. It is a steal that they only need to win by a basket over a mediocre Hawks team even on the road.
Ohio State Buckeyes -3 over Kansas Jayhawks
This you Kansas team will be dangerous in March but they still have a while to go. They already have two strikes against top ten teams Duke and Kentucky and they will be to late on the Buckeyes 100 mph fastball as well. Phog Allen always makes me a little nervous because of the history of the arena and its fans, but Ohio State is just too good.
Akron Zips +8.5 over Cleveland State Vikings
As any knows who has been reading, I love the Vikings. I have to take the points here though because, they have only beat one team by double digits in the last eight tries.
Temple Owls -4.5 over Villanova Wildcats
It is hard for me to forgo points in a Big 5 match up. I have to believe this Owls team can take care of business with a very veteran core against a Villanova team that has a lot of growing pains and no identity.
West Virginia Mountaineers -6 over Miami Hurricanes
Beyond Kevin Jones and Chuck Bryant, the Mountaineers are a little thin and very green. I do think they have enough in the tank to pull away from a Hurricanes team that has lost both of their other road contests to date and really struggles from the field (39.4% team shooting).
Kentucky Wildcats -5.5 over Indiana Hoosiers
I really want the Hoosiers to make this a game and prove Tom Crean has made them relevant again. It is just to logical to take the number one team in the country against a team who's best win is at NC State.
Boise State Broncos +1.5 over Louisiana State Tigers
I have been watching the basketball Broncos do their best impression of their football program and kick the crap out of average at best competition and they have been growing on me. It is a long road trip for Boise all the way to the Bayou but I think they have it in them against a sub par LSU team.
Ohio Bobcats -4.5 over Portland Pilots
Another trip to add up the frequent flyer miles. Ohio has put together a couple impressive season in a row out of the MAC and even have a victory of Georgetown in the NCAA tournament. They have most of their squad back from last season and it should be enough to put away a Pilots team that hasn't beaten a division one team in a month.
Davidson Wildcats -2.5 over Charlotte 49ers
I am way more sold on the Wildcats after they played Vanderbilt to a tight four points in their second loss of the season. The 49ers have played well this season but only ten wins last year leads me to believe it will not last.
Godspeed
Creighton Blue Jays -2 over Saint Joseph's Hawks
Doug McDermott is my favorite player in college hoops this season. He can do it all and he will as Creighton continues their undefeated season. It is a steal that they only need to win by a basket over a mediocre Hawks team even on the road.
Ohio State Buckeyes -3 over Kansas Jayhawks
This you Kansas team will be dangerous in March but they still have a while to go. They already have two strikes against top ten teams Duke and Kentucky and they will be to late on the Buckeyes 100 mph fastball as well. Phog Allen always makes me a little nervous because of the history of the arena and its fans, but Ohio State is just too good.
Akron Zips +8.5 over Cleveland State Vikings
As any knows who has been reading, I love the Vikings. I have to take the points here though because, they have only beat one team by double digits in the last eight tries.
Temple Owls -4.5 over Villanova Wildcats
It is hard for me to forgo points in a Big 5 match up. I have to believe this Owls team can take care of business with a very veteran core against a Villanova team that has a lot of growing pains and no identity.
West Virginia Mountaineers -6 over Miami Hurricanes
Beyond Kevin Jones and Chuck Bryant, the Mountaineers are a little thin and very green. I do think they have enough in the tank to pull away from a Hurricanes team that has lost both of their other road contests to date and really struggles from the field (39.4% team shooting).
Kentucky Wildcats -5.5 over Indiana Hoosiers
I really want the Hoosiers to make this a game and prove Tom Crean has made them relevant again. It is just to logical to take the number one team in the country against a team who's best win is at NC State.
Boise State Broncos +1.5 over Louisiana State Tigers
I have been watching the basketball Broncos do their best impression of their football program and kick the crap out of average at best competition and they have been growing on me. It is a long road trip for Boise all the way to the Bayou but I think they have it in them against a sub par LSU team.
Ohio Bobcats -4.5 over Portland Pilots
Another trip to add up the frequent flyer miles. Ohio has put together a couple impressive season in a row out of the MAC and even have a victory of Georgetown in the NCAA tournament. They have most of their squad back from last season and it should be enough to put away a Pilots team that hasn't beaten a division one team in a month.
Davidson Wildcats -2.5 over Charlotte 49ers
I am way more sold on the Wildcats after they played Vanderbilt to a tight four points in their second loss of the season. The 49ers have played well this season but only ten wins last year leads me to believe it will not last.
Godspeed
Friday, December 9, 2011
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Friday brings another skimpy sports day upon us but never fear. Even with no college football, there will be plenty of action with 118 basketball games and 20 of the top 25 in action. Going into tonight's slate of only ten games, we are now (50-24-2) here at win by two.
Fairfield Stags -2.5 over Old Dominion Monarchs
I was driving the Monarch's last season come tournament time when I had them beating Butler and Pitt en route to the elite eight. Alas, the Bulldogs made liars out of myself making a second consectutive trip to the finals. The Monarchs did play play Butler tight but this is not the same team after losing a number of players to grduation. Fairfield is a definite contender to play spoiler in March with four double figure scorers and Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders leading the way at 18 per game.
Virginia Commnwealth Rams -3 over Richmond Spiders
Interesting rematch of cinderellas from the 2010 tourney. Both teams lost a lot and have paid for it in the early season with some freshman growing pains. I like VCU at home.
Oregon State Beavers -13 over Idaho Vandols
After a very pedestrian season a year ago in the cellar of a weak PAC 10, the Beavers have jumped out to a quick start falling only once to a solid Vanderbilt team by two. I love their talent and depth in a conference that has not really improved in the last 12 months. They win big tonight.
Godspeed
Fairfield Stags -2.5 over Old Dominion Monarchs
I was driving the Monarch's last season come tournament time when I had them beating Butler and Pitt en route to the elite eight. Alas, the Bulldogs made liars out of myself making a second consectutive trip to the finals. The Monarchs did play play Butler tight but this is not the same team after losing a number of players to grduation. Fairfield is a definite contender to play spoiler in March with four double figure scorers and Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders leading the way at 18 per game.
Virginia Commnwealth Rams -3 over Richmond Spiders
Interesting rematch of cinderellas from the 2010 tourney. Both teams lost a lot and have paid for it in the early season with some freshman growing pains. I like VCU at home.
Oregon State Beavers -13 over Idaho Vandols
After a very pedestrian season a year ago in the cellar of a weak PAC 10, the Beavers have jumped out to a quick start falling only once to a solid Vanderbilt team by two. I love their talent and depth in a conference that has not really improved in the last 12 months. They win big tonight.
Godspeed
Thursday, December 8, 2011
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After 63 division one games last night, winners might be much more difficult to come by today with only 12 college basketball games and one from the NFL. I do not feel like I can put my confidence behind the Steelers blowing a team out two weeks in a row and I refuse to put my seal on the Browns. With a gun to my head I would bet on Pittsburgh to play sloppy and fail to convert in the red zone allowing Cleveland to cover. Instead of guessing, I'll stick with one I am confident with and pick the game of the night. Win by two is now (49-23-2) overall and as always you can follow me on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Providence Friars -13 over Boston College Eagles
Ed Cooley has the Friars showing signs of life in his first season as the Providence head coach. The Friars held up their in of the Big East-SEC Challenge traveling down to South Carolina and controlling the game start to finish to get an impressive win. It feels weird to see them playing defense. The Eagles on the other hand have been terrible. They are only (2_6) and come into the game off a 14 point loss at home to fellow Bean Town rival Boston University. The Friars can and will equal that.
Connecticut Huskies -6.5 over Harvard Crimson
Keep in mind that iI will be so happy if Harvard stays in this game untill the end that I will not care about the lost bet. That being said, I do think UCONN has something to prove and will come out firing on all cylinders and cover. Either way, I can't wait to watch this game.
Godspeed
Providence Friars -13 over Boston College Eagles
Ed Cooley has the Friars showing signs of life in his first season as the Providence head coach. The Friars held up their in of the Big East-SEC Challenge traveling down to South Carolina and controlling the game start to finish to get an impressive win. It feels weird to see them playing defense. The Eagles on the other hand have been terrible. They are only (2_6) and come into the game off a 14 point loss at home to fellow Bean Town rival Boston University. The Friars can and will equal that.
Connecticut Huskies -6.5 over Harvard Crimson
Keep in mind that iI will be so happy if Harvard stays in this game untill the end that I will not care about the lost bet. That being said, I do think UCONN has something to prove and will come out firing on all cylinders and cover. Either way, I can't wait to watch this game.
Godspeed
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Free Winners - December 7th Sportsbets
Crazy day in the world of basketball yesterday. I will never pick the Orangemen to cover a double digit spread again I promise. The Jimmy V Classic contained two incredibly good games as usual. I will stand pat the the Missouri Tigers are my pick to win it all even though Villanova played a tough second half. Washington and Long Beach State are both better than I thought as they refused to be put away and fought tooth and nail down the stretch. A .500 performace brings our overall to (44-22-1) and as always follow me on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Rapid fire today:
Alabama -5 over Dayton : Too many athletes
Wichita State -3.5 over Tulsa : All upperclassmen, won 2010 NIT, killed UNLV
Buffalo -8 over Niagara : The Bulls are just way better
Depaul -5 over Loyola Chicago : Teams cannot shoot 60% every night against Depaul
Virginia Tech -6 over Rhode Island : The Rams have only won one game for a reason
Vanderbilt -2 over Davidson : Vanderbilt is better than their record and there is no Steph Curry this year
Xavier -6 over Butler : I think the Musketeers are this year' Butler
Godspeed
Rapid fire today:
Alabama -5 over Dayton : Too many athletes
Wichita State -3.5 over Tulsa : All upperclassmen, won 2010 NIT, killed UNLV
Buffalo -8 over Niagara : The Bulls are just way better
Depaul -5 over Loyola Chicago : Teams cannot shoot 60% every night against Depaul
Virginia Tech -6 over Rhode Island : The Rams have only won one game for a reason
Vanderbilt -2 over Davidson : Vanderbilt is better than their record and there is no Steph Curry this year
Xavier -6 over Butler : I think the Musketeers are this year' Butler
Godspeed
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Free Winners - December 6th Sportsbets
Welcome back to the now (41-19-1) win by two sports picks of the day. I am crunched for time and there are a lot of games on the slate tonight so were going to get to it.
Syracuse Orangemen -16 over Marshall Thundering Herd : The Herd have started the year well but will not be able to keep it close against this elite Orange team. There is no let down after Florida and Syracuse wins big.
Kansas Jayhawks -12.5 over Long Beach State 49ers : Long Beach looked like the feel good team of the year early knocking off Pitt but have slowed down. Kansas is just to big and they pull away down the stretch.
Kent State Golden Flashes -1.5 over James Madison Dukes : Kent State is just the better team here and they should be able to handle winning by a basket.
Massacheusetts Minutemen -1.5 over East Carolina Pirates : Ditto
Marquette Golden Eagles -8 over Washington Huskies : Both of these teams managed to look impressive and win one or two games in last year's NCAA tourney. The difference is the Eagles have everyone back and are putting up points in bunches. They keep it going after an impressive win Sunday at Wisconsin.
Missouri Tigers -8 over Villanova Wildcats : Ga?e of the night, not because its a good matchup but because it is going to prove again that the Tigers are going to win this year's NCAA tournament. You heard it here first. This veteran Missouri team can do it all: rebound, defend score, and they have a true leader and crunch time scorer in Justin Dentmon. They run the Wildcats off their own court tonight.
Godspeed
Syracuse Orangemen -16 over Marshall Thundering Herd : The Herd have started the year well but will not be able to keep it close against this elite Orange team. There is no let down after Florida and Syracuse wins big.
Kansas Jayhawks -12.5 over Long Beach State 49ers : Long Beach looked like the feel good team of the year early knocking off Pitt but have slowed down. Kansas is just to big and they pull away down the stretch.
Kent State Golden Flashes -1.5 over James Madison Dukes : Kent State is just the better team here and they should be able to handle winning by a basket.
Massacheusetts Minutemen -1.5 over East Carolina Pirates : Ditto
Marquette Golden Eagles -8 over Washington Huskies : Both of these teams managed to look impressive and win one or two games in last year's NCAA tourney. The difference is the Eagles have everyone back and are putting up points in bunches. They keep it going after an impressive win Sunday at Wisconsin.
Missouri Tigers -8 over Villanova Wildcats : Ga?e of the night, not because its a good matchup but because it is going to prove again that the Tigers are going to win this year's NCAA tournament. You heard it here first. This veteran Missouri team can do it all: rebound, defend score, and they have a true leader and crunch time scorer in Justin Dentmon. They run the Wildcats off their own court tonight.
Godspeed
Monday, December 5, 2011
Free Winners - December 5th Sportsbets
Not the best Sunday on record but still came out in the positives. A (4-3) finish to the weekend brings the running total here at win by two up to (40-18-1). It was an interesting day for both sports. Both Baylor and Creighton made statements by covering against Big Ten opponents and the game I was too scared to go near yesterday, #20 UNLV at Wichita State, proved me right when the Shockers blew out the Runnin' Rebels. On the gridiron, the Packers clinched in dramatic fashion while the 49ers wrapped up the NFC West much less dramatically. Also, every team in the NFC Wild Card race lost wrapping an even less clear blanket of grey over the picture. In the AFC, the Texans proved they are still dangerous with their third string quarterback, the Steelers and Patriots held serve, and the Broncos continued to look more and more like the team of destiny. On to today with only two games on a slow Monday. As always on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Depaul Blue Demons -3 over Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers
The Panthers are no slouch winning 13 conference games last year and the Blue Demons have been the definition of bottom dweller winning just once a season ago against fellow Big East competition. This young Depaul Team is gaining confidence however with wins against Texas Tech and Arizona State and one basket losses to Ole Miss and Minnesota. They take care of business at home.
Elon Phoenix -1 over UNC Greensboro Spartans
I do not think Elon is anything special but they do return most of their starters and that should be enough to take care of a putrid Spartans team.
Godspeed
Depaul Blue Demons -3 over Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers
The Panthers are no slouch winning 13 conference games last year and the Blue Demons have been the definition of bottom dweller winning just once a season ago against fellow Big East competition. This young Depaul Team is gaining confidence however with wins against Texas Tech and Arizona State and one basket losses to Ole Miss and Minnesota. They take care of business at home.
Elon Phoenix -1 over UNC Greensboro Spartans
I do not think Elon is anything special but they do return most of their starters and that should be enough to take care of a putrid Spartans team.
Godspeed
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Free Winners - December 4th Sportsbets
What a Saturday with some blow out football, not always by the favorite and some truly exciting college hoops. Win by two's day was overrun by a long meeting, Christmas shopping, and a lot of following sports on the smart phone. Because of the hub bub, I was unable to post a rational for my picks for the day so here's a quick recap. It was an (8-1) start to the weekend with a sole loss coming from Xavier pulling off an incredible come back on the shoulders of back to back to back three's from Tu Halloway but not by enough. The victories on the gridiron came in the form of Syracuse's 6 turnovers and double digit loss and offensive outbursts by Baylor and both teams in the inaugural Big Ten Championship. Hardwood winners were Cleveland State winning and staying under, Texas turning it on late over UCLA, Loyola proving they are just better than Siena, and Marquette winning outright at in state rival Wisconsin. These games loft our overall to (36-15-1). Looking ahead here to Sunday, there are a bunch of lines I like so were going to do seven.
Baylor Bears + 2.5 over Northwestern Wildcats
A possibly very intriguing match up of undefeateds who are not normally know as basketball powers. I am not a believer in the Wildcats quick start and even if you are unimpressed by the Bears' early season foes, they have won every game by double digits, they have their best player back in Perry Jones III, and they are #8 in the country. I have t believe they can take care of business.
Creighton Blue Jays -8.5 over Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Blue Jays are for real. They returned almost everyone from a 23 win team from last season, sport an offense that ranks #2 in scoring and #1 in assists in the nation, and their star Doug McDermott has video game stats. In Creighton's (6-0) start, McDermott is averaging 23.7 ppg and 8.5 rpg while shooting 63, 56.5, and 86.7 % from the field, 3 point range, and the free throw line respectively. The Blue Jays will pull away at home.
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 over Houston Texans
With the Falcons fighting for their playoff lives and the Texans on their 3rd string quarterback, I see Atlanta seizing control of this game. It is far from a lock because Houston's running game and defense are as good as anyone's, It will be one possession but Tyler Yates will not be able to lead the Texans to victory.
Denver Broncos -1 over Minnesota Vikings
The proud Vikings will show up for their home fans with a tough defensive effort and make a push for their promising rookie starter Christian Ponder. Unfortunately, Tim Tebow can smell the playoffs and with dates with Chicago and New England looming, the Broncos know this is a must win.
Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans 42.5 : Detroit Lions/New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers/New York Giants 53.5 all over
I do not believe the Bills or Titans defenses can keep their opponents under 20 points. Also, I cannot feel bad about taking the over in either team's games the rest of the season after watching the Saints and Giants play last Monday. Detroit will score and are missing Ndamukong Suh and their two best defensive backs. Green Bay understands this could be their last tough game in the way of claiming an unbeaten regualr season.
Godspeed
Baylor Bears + 2.5 over Northwestern Wildcats
A possibly very intriguing match up of undefeateds who are not normally know as basketball powers. I am not a believer in the Wildcats quick start and even if you are unimpressed by the Bears' early season foes, they have won every game by double digits, they have their best player back in Perry Jones III, and they are #8 in the country. I have t believe they can take care of business.
Creighton Blue Jays -8.5 over Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Blue Jays are for real. They returned almost everyone from a 23 win team from last season, sport an offense that ranks #2 in scoring and #1 in assists in the nation, and their star Doug McDermott has video game stats. In Creighton's (6-0) start, McDermott is averaging 23.7 ppg and 8.5 rpg while shooting 63, 56.5, and 86.7 % from the field, 3 point range, and the free throw line respectively. The Blue Jays will pull away at home.
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 over Houston Texans
With the Falcons fighting for their playoff lives and the Texans on their 3rd string quarterback, I see Atlanta seizing control of this game. It is far from a lock because Houston's running game and defense are as good as anyone's, It will be one possession but Tyler Yates will not be able to lead the Texans to victory.
Denver Broncos -1 over Minnesota Vikings
The proud Vikings will show up for their home fans with a tough defensive effort and make a push for their promising rookie starter Christian Ponder. Unfortunately, Tim Tebow can smell the playoffs and with dates with Chicago and New England looming, the Broncos know this is a must win.
Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans 42.5 : Detroit Lions/New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers/New York Giants 53.5 all over
I do not believe the Bills or Titans defenses can keep their opponents under 20 points. Also, I cannot feel bad about taking the over in either team's games the rest of the season after watching the Saints and Giants play last Monday. Detroit will score and are missing Ndamukong Suh and their two best defensive backs. Green Bay understands this could be their last tough game in the way of claiming an unbeaten regualr season.
Godspeed
Friday, December 2, 2011
Free Winners - December 2nd Sportsbets
Nothing to complain about after another day in the black. I wonder if someone could make a living out of solely better on unders in the Horizon League. Our record here at win by two is now (27-13) overall heading it what promises to be an exciting weekend of conference championship games and maybe even fantasy football playoffs for some leagues. Only three games on the slate again tonight so we will try to make them count. Follow me on RobWinBy2Sports.
Northern Illinois Huskies -3 over Ohio Bobcats
This MAC match-up promises to kick off conference championship weekend with flair. The MAC had a deep field of stiff competition season from Toledo, Temple, and Western Michigan but the Huskies and Bobcats managed to come out on top. High scoring affairs have headlined the conference all year and this will be no different. In the end, Northern Illinois has been more prepared due to a much tougher western division that only had one team under .500 in conference. Chandler Harnish and the Huskies will prevail.
Rider Broncs -4 over Manhattan Jaspers
The Broncs have started a far cry from strongly managing just a single victory so far after a 23 win season last year. The talent is there though after return two of their top scorers and adding Virginia University transfer Jeff Jones into the mix. Rider should pull away from a dreadful Jaspers team at home.
Florida Gators +6 over Syracuse Orangmen
I must warn everyone that I am covering this game on site and the need to hedge my feelings may be impacting my decision here. I am legitimately terrified of a Gators team that sports six double figure scorers, has three guys shooting over 48% from deep, and reminds me to much of a Louisville Cardinal team that Syracuse is roughly (3-837) against in recent years. Deep down I think the Orangemen find a way to come out on top but I do not see them running away from a Florida team that took some very impressive Buckeyes down to the wire.
Godspeed
Northern Illinois Huskies -3 over Ohio Bobcats
This MAC match-up promises to kick off conference championship weekend with flair. The MAC had a deep field of stiff competition season from Toledo, Temple, and Western Michigan but the Huskies and Bobcats managed to come out on top. High scoring affairs have headlined the conference all year and this will be no different. In the end, Northern Illinois has been more prepared due to a much tougher western division that only had one team under .500 in conference. Chandler Harnish and the Huskies will prevail.
Rider Broncs -4 over Manhattan Jaspers
The Broncs have started a far cry from strongly managing just a single victory so far after a 23 win season last year. The talent is there though after return two of their top scorers and adding Virginia University transfer Jeff Jones into the mix. Rider should pull away from a dreadful Jaspers team at home.
Florida Gators +6 over Syracuse Orangmen
I must warn everyone that I am covering this game on site and the need to hedge my feelings may be impacting my decision here. I am legitimately terrified of a Gators team that sports six double figure scorers, has three guys shooting over 48% from deep, and reminds me to much of a Louisville Cardinal team that Syracuse is roughly (3-837) against in recent years. Deep down I think the Orangemen find a way to come out on top but I do not see them running away from a Florida team that took some very impressive Buckeyes down to the wire.
Godspeed
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Free Winners - December 1st Sportsbets
I feel terrible that I missed getting my picks on the page to close out the month but anyone who is following me under RobWinBy2Sports on freesportsbet.com knows I cleaned up with a (3-0) on the 30th. Penn State pulled away late, Creighton showed up 10 minutes late but rallied impressively to put away the Aztecs, and UNLV prevailed in a double over time thriller over the Gauchos. Only three lines on the slate again tonight so let's see if we can get the same result. (25-12) overall now.
Cleveland State Vikings -6 over Wright State and under 121 : I have a soft spot for the Vikings this season so I have to stick with them. Wright State had a tough 2010 campaign and it has not turned around yet with only two wins so far. I really love the under as I do in almost all Horizon League games. Neither team reaches 60.
Murray State Racers -6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : The Hilltoppers are only a few years removed from being a dangerous NCAA Tourney underdog with some pro talent. Unfortunately, the last few years have been miserable and after losing all of their double figure scorers from a year ago, they are still struggling. The Racers on the other hand are on the upswing and bring their undefeated record to town. Murray State takes care of business.
Godspeed.
Cleveland State Vikings -6 over Wright State and under 121 : I have a soft spot for the Vikings this season so I have to stick with them. Wright State had a tough 2010 campaign and it has not turned around yet with only two wins so far. I really love the under as I do in almost all Horizon League games. Neither team reaches 60.
Murray State Racers -6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : The Hilltoppers are only a few years removed from being a dangerous NCAA Tourney underdog with some pro talent. Unfortunately, the last few years have been miserable and after losing all of their double figure scorers from a year ago, they are still struggling. The Racers on the other hand are on the upswing and bring their undefeated record to town. Murray State takes care of business.
Godspeed.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Free Winners - November 29th Sportsbets
So were yesterday we learned again that the Saints are really good, the Atlantic 10 is legit, and never bet against a good Big East team with their best two players returning. Still managed a two and one thanks to special second halves by New Orleans and Xavier. All college hoops today as we pick the ACC-Big Ten Challenge here at win by two. We are now (21-10) overall and as always you can follow on Freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Duke Blue Devils +5.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes
The headliner of the Challenge matches up these two perennial contenders who are in very similar positions this season. Even after losing several key players from squads that earned number one seeds last season, both programs have started this year strong and carry undefeated records and top 5 rankings into this game. This game is completely 50/50 across the board so regardless I would be taking the five and a half. I do believe the Blue Devils are a little better though because of their guard play and depth on the front line due to the entire Plumlee lineage.
Michigan Wolverines +3 over Virginia Cavaliers
This line really surprised me. Michigan proved to be talented and tough last season and the Wolverines played Duke very tightly before taking care of business against UCLA in the consolation game out in Maui. Virginia is coming off a less than stellar (16-15) season and although they match Michigan's (5-1) record, they have yet to pick up a signature victory and their loss came at the hands of TCU. Really like the Wolverines here.
Illinois Fighting Illini -4.5 over Maryland Terrapins
The Illini are young and spunky and have fought their way to victory in every game this year but this bet is more about how poor Maryland has played. The Terps have not rebound very well from Gary Williams retirement. They have already lost by 20+ points twice this season and once was a 26 point shellacking at the hands of Iona. I love the Gaels this season but it is still embarrassing for Maryland.
Godspeed
Monday, November 28, 2011
Free Winners - November 28th Sportsbets
Quite a historic streak were on here over the last couple of days. After follwing up a (5-0) Saturday with a (4-0) Sunday, win by two's record has now moved up to a cool (19-9). Let us see if we can keep rolling.
New Orleans Saints/New York Giants over 51 : I have not been the best at picking overs recently in the National Football League but I feel really good about this one Both teams can move the ball, the Giants defense have a banged up secondary, and the Saints defense is just bad. Should a close game with both teams near or over 30.
Akron Zips +10.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers : I do not think that this MAC team will catch their Big East foe off guard but the Zips are even better than the Flashes so this line is just too high.
Xavier Musketeers +4 over Vanderbilt Commadores : Not incredibly confident in this one but the Atlantic 10 has been very impressive and I never trust the SEC. Take the points.
Godspeed
New Orleans Saints/New York Giants over 51 : I have not been the best at picking overs recently in the National Football League but I feel really good about this one Both teams can move the ball, the Giants defense have a banged up secondary, and the Saints defense is just bad. Should a close game with both teams near or over 30.
Akron Zips +10.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers : I do not think that this MAC team will catch their Big East foe off guard but the Zips are even better than the Flashes so this line is just too high.
Xavier Musketeers +4 over Vanderbilt Commadores : Not incredibly confident in this one but the Atlantic 10 has been very impressive and I never trust the SEC. Take the points.
Godspeed
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Free Winners - November 27th Sportsbets
Now that's more like it. After a tough start to the extended Thanksgiving weekend, a (5-0) day Saturday was exactly what win by two needed to get back on track. With an overall record of a comfortable (15-9) now, I can breath a little easier. As always, follow me on freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts
I do not feel like I really need to write many qualifications for this pick. The Colts are in a league of their own for putrid NFL teams and have no interest in winning. Carolina is no playoff team but they can put up points and they have been competitive in almost all of their games this year. Panthers will win comfortably.
New England Patriots (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles
Everything broke right for the Eagles to beat the Giants last week so I do not believe we can use that game as a reason to back the Vince Young era. The Pats are back on track and the Eagles will just be able to keep up.
Cleveland State Vikings (-3) over Rhode Island Rams and Under (139)
They have played one common team this year where the Rams were defeated by six and the Vikings managed to pull out a victory. If that is not enough, Cleveland State has only tripped up once this season while Rhode Island has only come out on top once. I am even more confident in Cleveland State controlling the tempo of this game, keeping it slow, and finishing this game far under.
Godspeed
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts
I do not feel like I really need to write many qualifications for this pick. The Colts are in a league of their own for putrid NFL teams and have no interest in winning. Carolina is no playoff team but they can put up points and they have been competitive in almost all of their games this year. Panthers will win comfortably.
New England Patriots (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles
Everything broke right for the Eagles to beat the Giants last week so I do not believe we can use that game as a reason to back the Vince Young era. The Pats are back on track and the Eagles will just be able to keep up.
Cleveland State Vikings (-3) over Rhode Island Rams and Under (139)
They have played one common team this year where the Rams were defeated by six and the Vikings managed to pull out a victory. If that is not enough, Cleveland State has only tripped up once this season while Rhode Island has only come out on top once. I am even more confident in Cleveland State controlling the tempo of this game, keeping it slow, and finishing this game far under.
Godspeed
Saturday, November 26, 2011
The Ugly World of Ndamukong Suh
Unless you live under a rock, you are well aware of the good and the bad impact that Lions’ all pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has had on the NFL. First the good. After an unbelievable senior season at Nebraska where from his defensive tackle position Suh lead the Cornhuskers in tackles, recorded 24 tackles for a loss, chalked up 12 sacks, blocked three kicks, and finished fourth in Heisman voting, he was draft number two overall behind only Sam Bradford. His rookie season was just as impressive as he won defensive rookie of the year, was named to the all pro team, and was the first Detroit Lion since Barry Sanders to be voted a Pro Bowl starter. This season started just as well as a team built around play makers on both sides of the ball propelled the Lions to their first (5-0) start in 55 years. On the other of the coin, Ndamukong has earned a reputation as the dirtiest play in the NFL by continuing to hit quarterbacks and every other position illegally and late culminating in an ejection from the team’s most recent game. He has paid for his mistakes through fines totaling $42,500 and counting along with an endless amount of public criticism.
Twenty seven games into Ndamukong Suh’s young career in which I have watched every play, I am left confused. I do not really know how to feel after watching a player consistently make mental errors that costs his team dearly. I do not think labeling him a dirty player and being done with it is sufficient. After playing every sport under the sun since I could walk, I have encountered my share of dirty play. My definition may be a little different than others. The dirtiest a person can play in my opinion is to take advantage of holes in the rules of the game or the human error that exists for officials to gain an upper hand, irritate opposing players, or injure them. So is Suh a dirty player? I say no because nothing he does gives him an advantage. Every single illegal or borderline play he is involved in he pays for in multiple ways. He has not been able to get away with anything. I would argue that other teams actually want to play against him because he will make at least a couple of huge errors a game that will help them win. Because of my view, I sincerely do not think Ndamukong Suh is a dirty player but possibly is something worse.
So what is he?
Young : Ndamukong is 24 years old as are a number of impact players in today’s NFL. In a his second season with a full year of NFL tape of his games available, coaches have figured out how to throw him off his game and put him in a position to make mental errors.Stubborn : I would argue if a highlight reel including all of his penalties was displayed next to a loop of just three plays where Suh jumps off sides, clutchs a facemask, and plants a hit right on the quarterback’s helmet, no one could tell the difference. Week after week he earns the same penalties and most of them on third down.
Emotional : Showcased by the ejection two days ago, Ndamukong has not been able to reign in his emotions. Opposing lineman have found and exploited Suh’s weakness by using liberal amounts of physical and verbal barbs to get under his skin. To date, he has not been able to put mind over matter, get the win, and in turn the last laugh.
While I believe these three words are all more descriptive of Suh’s play and personality than dirty, there is one that is the most fitting and actually encompasses all four. Ndamukong Suh is selfish. Nothing I have seen over the last sixteen months of play can lead me to any other conclusion. He is the equivalent of a head case hoopster that only plays offense one on one, gambles defensively on every possession, and loads up on technical fouls. The timing of his penalties prove that he can be pushed all to easily to put his own agenda and personal vendettas ahead of team goals and fellow players. He refuses to alter his attack of opposing quarterbacks even though his blows to their head routinely keep drives alive. He has never shown the ability to take a deep breath and walk away, bringing the punt team on the field, and giving the Lions offense a chance to impact the game. I really appreciate how hard Jim Schwartz has worked to change the culture of the franchise and build a team based on character and culpability. It is unacceptable for one player to undermine an entire team. I hope he matures and realizes how detrimental he has been to his team but for now, Ndamukong lives in his own little world. Until he hires a real estate agent and buys property on earth, I do not want to watch him on my team.Free Winners - November 26th Sportsbets
Wow, I may have to change the name of this column if things do not turn around. A less than stellar Black Friday has now dropped our record at win by two almost in the red down to (10-9). Things looked so good early with Houston rolling and the Razorbacks up 14-0 on LSU. I'll spare you from the head shaking. I decided to get back on track today, the best idea is to stick to my strengths: proven mid-majors and betting against Orangemen football. Let us see how that goes.
Cincinnati Bearcats -2.5 over Syracuse Orange
After a promising start and truly believe my hometown team was nationally relevant after a thumping of West Virginia one month ago, Syracuse has done their damnedest to prove me wrong. The last three games have been the worst football I have ever watched. It would be great if that changed, but I do not see it happening. Even though the Bearcats have played almost as bad since the injury to Zach Collaros, they still have plenty to blow out the Orange in Syracuse.
Connecticut Huskies -1 over Florida State Seminoles
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses to mid-majors that returned a lot of starters from a year ago. The difference was, the Huskies beat themselves while the Seminoles just got beat. Even after losing their heart and soul from the championship team to the NBA, UConn still has too much talent on this roster to drop two in a row.
Harvard Crimson -3.5 over Central Florida Knights
With no disrespect meant to the Knights who pulled off a a huge upset last night, Harvard is for real. They returned four starters and their sixth man and are (28-7) since the beginning of last year. They also played one of the most entertaining games of last season losing a one game playoff to Princeton by a single point. I cannot wait to pick this team to the sweet sixteen.
Akron Zips -4.5 over Detroit Titans
The Zips have so much talent that even though they returned two of their three leading scorers from an NCAA tournament team, neither of those two are top three on the team so far this season. Seven guys are piling on at least 8 ppg for their balanced attack. Do not let their .500 record fool you, Akron can hang with the big boys.
San Diego State Aztecs +4.5 over UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
This line really confused me. The Aztecs lost almost their entire impressive team from last year that earned a two seed and fell in a tight game to the eventual champion UConn in the sweet sixteen. After winning the Big West Conference title a year ago, the Gauchos have taken care of business winning all four games so far by at least 14 points. Looking deeper however, two of those wins were against non division one opponents while the Aztecs only loss came in a tight game at #12 Baylor. San Diego State also has won at Arizona and against Long Beach State who was the best team in the Big West last season and swept the Gauchos in the regular season. I do not understand why Steve Fischer's club is not favored but I will gladly take the points.
Godspeed
Cincinnati Bearcats -2.5 over Syracuse Orange
After a promising start and truly believe my hometown team was nationally relevant after a thumping of West Virginia one month ago, Syracuse has done their damnedest to prove me wrong. The last three games have been the worst football I have ever watched. It would be great if that changed, but I do not see it happening. Even though the Bearcats have played almost as bad since the injury to Zach Collaros, they still have plenty to blow out the Orange in Syracuse.
Connecticut Huskies -1 over Florida State Seminoles
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses to mid-majors that returned a lot of starters from a year ago. The difference was, the Huskies beat themselves while the Seminoles just got beat. Even after losing their heart and soul from the championship team to the NBA, UConn still has too much talent on this roster to drop two in a row.
Harvard Crimson -3.5 over Central Florida Knights
With no disrespect meant to the Knights who pulled off a a huge upset last night, Harvard is for real. They returned four starters and their sixth man and are (28-7) since the beginning of last year. They also played one of the most entertaining games of last season losing a one game playoff to Princeton by a single point. I cannot wait to pick this team to the sweet sixteen.
Akron Zips -4.5 over Detroit Titans
The Zips have so much talent that even though they returned two of their three leading scorers from an NCAA tournament team, neither of those two are top three on the team so far this season. Seven guys are piling on at least 8 ppg for their balanced attack. Do not let their .500 record fool you, Akron can hang with the big boys.
San Diego State Aztecs +4.5 over UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
This line really confused me. The Aztecs lost almost their entire impressive team from last year that earned a two seed and fell in a tight game to the eventual champion UConn in the sweet sixteen. After winning the Big West Conference title a year ago, the Gauchos have taken care of business winning all four games so far by at least 14 points. Looking deeper however, two of those wins were against non division one opponents while the Aztecs only loss came in a tight game at #12 Baylor. San Diego State also has won at Arizona and against Long Beach State who was the best team in the Big West last season and swept the Gauchos in the regular season. I do not understand why Steve Fischer's club is not favored but I will gladly take the points.
Godspeed
Friday, November 25, 2011
Free Winners - November 25th Sportsbets
The only sad thing about today is that we all have ti wait 364 days until Thanksgiving. It was a beautiful one here in central New York. Football was played in summer ware and football did not disappoint with the exception of the Detroit Lions offense and the self control of Ndamukong Suh. I cannot pretend to understand what the man is thinking anymore. We will have more on this next week. It was not the best day for picks on turkey day at win by two, but I would pick the same games again. Baltimore decided to show up and the Lions offense did not. That does not happen every day. That Harvard team is for real though. I am definitely not going to be picking against them as a 13 seed in March. Yesterday set me back to (9-6) overall but I think Black Friday is going to be rebound day. As always, follow me on freesportsbet.com at RobWinBy2Sports.
Houston Cougars -3 over Tulsa Hurricane
If any Conference team is going to cut down the Cougars run at perfection it will be Tulsa. After starting the season (1-3) with losses to Boise State and both top 5 interstate rivals, the Hurricane rebounded to put together an impressive conference season with an average margin of victory of 24 points per contest. The problem is, Case Keenum has broken almost every passing record while leading Houston to trounce conference opponents by a whopping average of almost 38 points. The Cougars have let teams hang around so I would not be surprised if this is close for a half, but Tulsa will lose to their fourth top ten team this season today.
Arkansas Razorbacks +12 over Louisiana State Tigers
After the Oregon game way back in August, I made a firm announcement to no one that the Tigers will be national champs come January. While that prognostication has proven worthy of consideration, I have to double back on myself today. I hate to use this method to pick games, but after the way the end of this season has played out, my gut tells me the Razorbacks keep this close a win outright at the end. After Oregon, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and maybe even Alabama lost out on their chance at the national title from missed field goals while Stanford and Oklahoma also fell short in dramatic fashion, it seems the leader in the clubhouse is not a safe place to reside. I have to believe the trend is going to continue in this wacky season and Arkansas will find a way to pull this one out or more likely the Tigers will make a fatal error that will cost them. At the very least, twelve points is just too many.
Villanova Wildcats +1 over Saint Louis Billikens
The Billikens have been impressive, as has the rest of the Atlantic 10, in the early season winning all of their games by digits. On the other side, Villanova has been less than spectacular with a close call over time win over fellow Big 5 La Salle. Even though the Wildcats are coming off a season where they lost their last six games, they still won 21 games and reached .500 in conference while Saint Louis only won 12 games all season. Jay Wright's squad takes care of business here.
Syracuse Orange -8.5 over Stanford Cardinal
I am going to continue to be a homer for this Orange team until they show me a reason to believe otherwise. They are ten deep and no matter how a game starts, wearing the opponent out and taking over the game with an offensive run is inevitable. Stanford has shown they are much improved from last years sub .500 campaign but it just will not be enough to handle one of the two best teams in the country.
Godspeed
Houston Cougars -3 over Tulsa Hurricane
If any Conference team is going to cut down the Cougars run at perfection it will be Tulsa. After starting the season (1-3) with losses to Boise State and both top 5 interstate rivals, the Hurricane rebounded to put together an impressive conference season with an average margin of victory of 24 points per contest. The problem is, Case Keenum has broken almost every passing record while leading Houston to trounce conference opponents by a whopping average of almost 38 points. The Cougars have let teams hang around so I would not be surprised if this is close for a half, but Tulsa will lose to their fourth top ten team this season today.
Arkansas Razorbacks +12 over Louisiana State Tigers
After the Oregon game way back in August, I made a firm announcement to no one that the Tigers will be national champs come January. While that prognostication has proven worthy of consideration, I have to double back on myself today. I hate to use this method to pick games, but after the way the end of this season has played out, my gut tells me the Razorbacks keep this close a win outright at the end. After Oregon, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and maybe even Alabama lost out on their chance at the national title from missed field goals while Stanford and Oklahoma also fell short in dramatic fashion, it seems the leader in the clubhouse is not a safe place to reside. I have to believe the trend is going to continue in this wacky season and Arkansas will find a way to pull this one out or more likely the Tigers will make a fatal error that will cost them. At the very least, twelve points is just too many.
Villanova Wildcats +1 over Saint Louis Billikens
The Billikens have been impressive, as has the rest of the Atlantic 10, in the early season winning all of their games by digits. On the other side, Villanova has been less than spectacular with a close call over time win over fellow Big 5 La Salle. Even though the Wildcats are coming off a season where they lost their last six games, they still won 21 games and reached .500 in conference while Saint Louis only won 12 games all season. Jay Wright's squad takes care of business here.
Syracuse Orange -8.5 over Stanford Cardinal
I am going to continue to be a homer for this Orange team until they show me a reason to believe otherwise. They are ten deep and no matter how a game starts, wearing the opponent out and taking over the game with an offensive run is inevitable. Stanford has shown they are much improved from last years sub .500 campaign but it just will not be enough to handle one of the two best teams in the country.
Godspeed
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Free Winners - November 24th Sportsbets
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! My favorite day of the year. There is just nothing like waking up to a huge breakfast hung over before going to battle in the Turkey Bowl and then stuffing your face all day and watching spectacular football. After splitting last night, were now (8-4) overall at win by 2 headquarters. Due to the holiday, this will be short and sweet.
Green Bay Packers / Detroit Lions over 56 : Both teams are in rare form passing the ball and while these defenses have a lot of playmakers, they will give up points. The early game is way, way over.
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens : All signs are pointing to the Harbaugh Bowl being a tight match up. I do not trust the Ravens farther than I can throw them and the 49ers just seem like a team on a mission. Taking the points.
Harvard Crimson -14.5 over Utah Utes : The Utes are historically bad and probably the worst major conference team this season. Harvard returns nearly all of their scoring from last year's impressive team. Crimson rolls.
Godspeed and have a great Thanksgiving
Green Bay Packers / Detroit Lions over 56 : Both teams are in rare form passing the ball and while these defenses have a lot of playmakers, they will give up points. The early game is way, way over.
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens : All signs are pointing to the Harbaugh Bowl being a tight match up. I do not trust the Ravens farther than I can throw them and the 49ers just seem like a team on a mission. Taking the points.
Harvard Crimson -14.5 over Utah Utes : The Utes are historically bad and probably the worst major conference team this season. Harvard returns nearly all of their scoring from last year's impressive team. Crimson rolls.
Godspeed and have a great Thanksgiving
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Free Winners On Freesportsbet.com
My most sincere apologies for not getting a full article out yesterday for everyone who was waiting for it. It was the busiest of busy days at win by two headquarters. It was still a winning day going 3 for 5, winning on Kansas -8.5 to beat UCLA, Seton Hall -8 against Yale, and hitting big on Missouri -2.5 over Cal. I am still not sold on Illinois but the did manage to cover against a young Richmond team and the Cleveland State and Kent State matchup did not dissappoint so I am not upset about picking incorrectly. Moving on to today's selections.
As always, all my bets can be followed on Freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports. Yesterday (3-2) Overall (6-2)
Evansville Aces -4 over Illinois-Chicago Flames. This one is an easy one in my mind. The Flames only won 7 games last year and the Aces were .500 in the MVC. Evansville also returned all but 2 players who scored for them last year.
Duke Blue Devils -4.5 over Kansas Jayhawks. Another no brainer. Duke is a clear top five team this year and Kansas is only returning two players who mattered from last years underacheiving tournament team.
Syracuse Orange -10 over Virginia Tech Hokies and over 137.5. Two parter here. I am all in on this Syracuse team. I think they are better than everyone that plays outside of Chapel Hill and they will show it tonight. The Orange will roll and score over 80 which will carry the game past 137.5
Godspeed.
As always, all my bets can be followed on Freesportsbet.com under RobWinBy2Sports. Yesterday (3-2) Overall (6-2)
Evansville Aces -4 over Illinois-Chicago Flames. This one is an easy one in my mind. The Flames only won 7 games last year and the Aces were .500 in the MVC. Evansville also returned all but 2 players who scored for them last year.
Duke Blue Devils -4.5 over Kansas Jayhawks. Another no brainer. Duke is a clear top five team this year and Kansas is only returning two players who mattered from last years underacheiving tournament team.
Syracuse Orange -10 over Virginia Tech Hokies and over 137.5. Two parter here. I am all in on this Syracuse team. I think they are better than everyone that plays outside of Chapel Hill and they will show it tonight. The Orange will roll and score over 80 which will carry the game past 137.5
Godspeed.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Today's Lines - 11/21/11
Welcome to week three here at win by two sports. What a great weekend. Possibly the best college football Saturday in my life time that included exciting finishes, missed field goals, and double digit upsets and comebacks. To top it all off, my Lions outscored this year’s rookie of the year runner up and the Panthers 42-11 over the last 40 minutes of the game thanks to a brilliant performance by the rejuvenated Kevin Smith. After becoming very pessimistic about Detroit’s one dimensional offense, my confidence has been restored as the running game lifted an elephantine weight off of Matthew Stafford’s shoulders. Can’t wait for Thursday. Moving on, we here at win by two are now going to provide you with a daily blog post of each days home run sports lines. Every line is courtesy of freesportsbet.com, a 100% free sports betting website that is completely funded by advertisements. All of my bets will be placed through this site and you can follow my progress (RobWinBy2Sports) or use my suggestions at your discretion to build up your own account. Let’s see how it goes.
The first installment: November 21, 2011
Albany Great Danes (-7.5) over Monmouth Hawks
This may be a little bit of a homer pick being an America East Conference alum, but I feel very good about it. The Danes may be only (1-2) but they definitely passed the eye test while combating their thruway rivals and number five team in the country, the Syracuse Orange. Although Albany lost by 24, they never looked outmatched physically and their starting backcourt both piled in over 20 points on efficient shooting. Moreover, Gerardo Suero is making an early season push for America East player of the year. The 6’4” junior college transfer is averaging almost 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 36% from three and a whopping 60% from the field. Monmouth on the other hand is coming off a single digit win campaign last season and it does not look to be improving. The Hawks are losing by more than 37 points per game in their first three contests.
Duke Blue Devils and Tennessee Volunteers (over 143.5)
Both of these teams are running and gunning early in the 2011-12 season averaging 82.3 and 88.5 points respectively. A high scoring game with a plethora of runs is a lock. Even if one defense decides to show up, the winner of this game will reach the 80’s and clinch the over.
Texas Longhorns and North Carolina State (over 150.5)
I do not feel quite as confident with this over because the teams are not quite as efficient as Duke or Tennessee. However, the early season performances by these two teams dictate that little if any defense will be played in this game especially by Texas. The Longhorns have both scored and allowed the century mark in the young season and I do not see that style changing any time soon. Expect a lot of turnovers and easy buckets in this high scoring affair.
Godspeed today and may tomorrow be better.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Not Going Down With the Ship
March 19, 1995. With a team built to make a run, the only obstacle impeding the Syracuse Orangemen from an elite eight birth is the final six and a half seconds while maintaining their one point lead. With Arkansas trying to inbound the ball, Lucious Jackson flies out of nowhere and manages deflect and steal the ball as he goes to the ground. Precious seconds tick away as the Razorbacks desperately try to remove the ball from Lucious. Knowing the arrow is in his favor with no time outs to use, Jackson makes no attempt to pass and instead wisely keeps iron grip and hopes for a long count before the referees call for the jump ball. In those two seconds, the excitement is mixed with the reality that after the jump ball, even more time would elapse before Syracuse free throws and a half court heave from Arkansas would propel the team in Orange another step closer to their first championship. The whistle blows and play stops while the elation still hangs in the air. Next thing I remember is the play by play announcer screaming that Jackson had called a time out. Not knowing what this meant, I watched in confused horror as Arkansas was awarded two free throws and sending the game to overtime and inevitable defeat.
Overtime never stuck in my eight year old brain and neither did the fact that only seconds after Jackson was blamed for a poor decision that would end his college career did the announcer refute his claim and tag Lawrence Moten as the scapegoat. Thankfully, every contest I have followed since did not end in such tragedy. The team rebounded and overachieved to play for the national championship just one year later after I had turned nine. I’ll never forget sprinting onto the field at eleven after Donovan McNabb hit Steve Brominski to beat the Hokies and then scouring the benches for any keepsake to remember the day by, barely comprehending where I was. Every second of the six game run to win twice in New Orleans and cut down the nets right after my driver’s test is etched so firmly in my brain it would survive a lobotomy. I remember cutting classes and sprinting to the closest dorm after tests to catch Gerry McNamara’s one of a kind week at the Garden my freshman year of college. As much as I love all sports, no team could ever scratch the surface of how entrenched orange and blue is in who I am. My experiences with this program during my formative years have led to a connection that I simply will not be able to achieve with another team.Hand in hand with my team, this connection extends to the Big East conference. I loved and will continue to love everything that the Big East was about. After nearly two months of reflection in which I needed every moment to digest what had happened, I have finally come to grips with the reality that the Big East that I grew up with is dead. Please do not confuse this with the long standing debate of whether the conference will retain its BCS bid, if a basketball and football schism is necessary, or even if the conference will remain competitive. The feel, the styles, the rivalries, the fans, and the teams that we have all became familiar with are no longer intact. It is not fair to blame Darryl Gross or Nancy Cantor because after looking at all the facts, the present situation dictates that joining the ACC is the best move for the football program and in turn the university. I do believe they made every attempt to keep the Big East a viable football conference before washing their hands of the situation. When an agreement between Big East schools could not be reached to accept a nine year $1.4 billion television deal, it became clear another option needed to be found. The ACC offers stability that comes with a larger conference and financial security from a more lucrative television deal. On top of that, with West Virginia itching to leave, Pittsburgh and Syracuse’s departure promised to leave Rutgers as the only long standing football member. Reality is, more of our football rivals are actually now in the ACC. Unfortunately, even though moving to the ACC makes too much sense to pass on, what has happened to the football conference from the departure of Miami and Virginia Tech to the escape of the Orange and both halves of the backyard brawl does have collateral damage.
The three headed departure that created a football conference of walking dead had the opposite effect on Big East basketball. Six years after bringing in three new full members and two more without football programs, the Big East starts this basketball season with six ranked teams, four in the top ten, and boasting the reigning NCAA Champion. Three of those teams, Marquette, Louisville, and Cincinnati, were brought in as upgrades versus the loss of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. None of teams that jumped ship even received a single vote for the top 25 this week. In those six years and counting, the Big East has put 48 teams in the NCAA tournament, produced 18 Sweet Sixteen appearances, collected seven number one seeds, and put five teams in the Final Four. This was capped off by unprecedented 2011 NCAA tournament that included 11 Big East schools and its tournament champion. With no disrespect to the 1980’s which saw two champions from the Big East and six different schools make the Final Four including three in the same year, the conference is at its peak right now. Despite all these numbers, my point is not to prove that Big East basketball is ‘the best.’ I have always found the argument about which conference is best to be a waste of time. No Big East fanatic is ever going to convince an ACC crazy of their conference’s superiority on the hardwood. Likewise, despite the outcome in title games, a Big Ten supporter is never going to concede to SEC dominance on the gridiron. That is why I have spent the last seventeen years trumpeting to anyone who would listen not about why the Big East has superior teams, but why the way the teams play and how they are coached make Big East games the purest and most entertaining product. That is the largest hole left by the departure of the Orangemen for the ACC.After playing the same teams years in and year out, the teams each conference in college basketball take on a similar identity. It is no secret that the Big Ten plays a slowdown game below the rim that emphasizes half-court defense, high IQ passing, and execution. The same attributes supported by fans of women’s basketball. By the same token, the staple programs of the Big 12 use their superior athletes in run and gun offenses that lead to exciting and high scoring affairs. Every year it seems another Midwest forward is in the news shattering records be it Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Blake Griffin, or now maybe Perry Jones III. Even though more often than not, programs like Maryland, NC State, and Wake Forrest contend, everyone knows the ACC lives and dies with Duke, UNC, and their praises heaped on by Dick Vitale. And they cater to it. It can be difficult to watch conference games with these two teams because of the weight their programs lean on fans, announcers, and officials. Hopefully that will change. The Pac 12 and SEC always have a similar place in my mind because they each have one member of basketball royalty in UCLA and Kentucky and then always seem to find one or two other teams that annually vie for national recognition be it Florida, Washington, Tennessee, or Arizona. Finally, I will always have a soft spot for the Missouri Valley Conference and Horizon League who diagram how to compete annually as mid majors. Like Billy Bean, they have figured out how to exploit the undervalued talents in the one and done era. Every year teams from these leagues that shine in March are well coached, senior filled, shoot the ball well, and will not beat themselves. What separates the Big East from all of these conferences is the combination of the better qualities from each one.
At the top, the class of the Big East over the last twenty years has been Syracuse and Connecticut. The heartbeat of both teams comes from their coach. Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun are one and two in every Big East coaching statistic even though they do it in very different ways. Over the last two decades, these two teams have made 17 conference championship appearances, won 10 Big East crowns, and are the homes to the Big East’s four NCAA championships over that span. Syracuse plays a game of percentages using the 2-3 zone to force teams to shoot from the outside. Also, keeping a tight rotation retains the most amount of talent on the floor which allows their stars to win or lose games. UConn uses their quick guards and athletic, rangy wingmen to funnel opponents to their formidable shot blockers that lead the NCAA seemingly every year. For the remainder of their tenure in the conference, both programs have cemented their status as the Big East elite.
Georgetown and Pittsburgh both play a style of basketball that would be right at home in the Big Ten. John Thompson III brought a version of the Princeton style offense with him when he took the job in our nation’s capital. Although the Hoya version is jazzed up a little because of athletes that are superior to the Ivy League, it is still based upon back cuts, intelligent basketball, and limiting possessions by milking the shot clock. Pittsburgh has adapted a mirror image of the style utilized by Tom Izzo at Michigan State. The Panthers will punch you in the mouth on both sides of the court. They take pride in shutting down easy points for their opponents while creating their own by sending everyone to the offensive glass. The Panthers are not known for producing lottery draft picks, but they always play tough and never back down from any opponent.
The three guard offense has also proved very successful for college teams in recent years. With many athletic big men departing straight to the NBA from high school or playing collegiately for a limited time, there has been an excess of talented guards filling out rosters. Villanova and Marquette have chosen to make use of three guards a staple for their program. Over the last decade these two teams have used NBA talent like Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry, Wesley Mathews, and Dwyane Wade to run circles around larger teams. Intense man-to-man pressure defense, attacking the rim, and superb shooting have proven smaller lineups produce Final Four teams.Cincinnati and St. John’s have a storied college basketball history that includes NBA hall of fame stars. Each have seen a recent resurgence after a few tough years. Both teams recruit elite athletes that are ideal for a fast paced game that will challenge any team. They get up and down the floor, rebound and score above the rim, and play in your face opportunistic defense that often leads to points on their own end. Each team rebounded from near .500 seasons in 2010 to win double digit conference games and enter the field of 68.
Louisville and West Virginia stand out from the crowd because they use defenses used by most teams only as a change of pace. The Cardinals get after their opponents by pressing full court for most of the game. Rick Pitino utilizes his bench as well as anyone frustrating and tiring opponents while keeping his own players fresh. Playing 10 guys at least 10 minutes a game makes foul trouble almost a nonfactor. Louisville makes people run while they are on offense as well by spreading the floor and having seven different players shooting the long ball every game. West Virginia has used a mixture of different defenses to disrupt opponents including my personal favorite, the 1-3-1 zone. The biggest advantage to this defense is that it causes other teams to run their offense from spots on the floor they are uncomfortable with. With three players positioned in the middle of the floor, it forces players to find other avenues to the basket. Often, offenses end up stuck using one half of the floor with two or three players while the defense has four people involved in the play. Both of these programs have maximized their game plans collecting NCAA one and two seeds and each advancing to the Final Four in the last six years.
My favorite underrated part of the Big East is the reality of the little guy. No other major conference is home to schools that do not have an FBS football program. The Big East provides Providence, Seton Hall, Depaul, and the aforementioned Villanova, Georgetown, St. John’s, and Marquette with a chance to compete on the biggest stage of college hoops. Every program has historical significance including hall of famers, Final Fours, and NCAA Championships. In an era focused on the cash cow of college football, the Big East has kept alive schools that have competed at the highest level for decades and deserve more than being an afterthought in a mid-major conference. Away from the Big East, Providence and Seton Hall especially qualify as mid-majors. After reaching the Final Four in the 1980’s, they each have remained competitive as small schools do by recruiting four year players, building around heady team leaders, and taking advantage of opportunities. Schools like these deserve to remain relevant.I left Notre Dame out of the picture so far because even though they play a style that could qualify as a rich man’s mid-major, the fact that they were allowed to stick around while not joining the football conference always felt skeezy and they should not be allowed to do it. Moving on.
My first memory of Syracuse athletics is not as gruesome as the poor souls who had to watch a Keith Smart baseline jumper fall in a month after I was born, but young as I was I do believe that file in my brain has affected my relationship to a program that means so much to me and its namesake city. As a fan base we hope for the best and expect the worst. I am here to instill confidence that ACC is the right move for our school. For all intents and purposes, Syracuse is the captain of the Big East. Even though the saying states that the captain is supposed to go down with the ship, it is time to hold tight to our memories, in good time shift our loyalties, and savor the precious time we have left with our conference because the war is not over. Watch every game. Taste all the rivalries. Absorb everything on the walk up the steps to the dome. Experience the Big East on its finest stage at Madison Square Garden and file it all away in your head and heart. It is time make our imprint elsewhere and prove Big East greatness by taking over as Captain of another ship.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Mid-Season NFL: Recap, Projection, and Smell Test
Wow, I cannot believe how much has changed from last week. I put together a rough draft before last week’s games and I am basically rewriting the whole thing. The Steelers can’t stop teams on third down, the Patriots can’t stop anyone, and I now feel I have to take the Ravens and New Jersey football seriously. I am glad I had the insight to give myself an extra seven days for mid-season rankings. This week were going to work our way from 32 to 1 based on teams’ outlook for the remainder of the 2011-2012 season. He we go starting with the dumpster fires. For the faint of heart, I will focus on the positives.
32) Indianapolis Colts (0-9)
Thank you Miami for making this call even easier. It is really weird watching the Colts because I definitely do not feel like they have given up. They put in an effort every game, try hard on defense, run the ball fairly well (4.5 ypc, 3 backs over 4.0), and are still losing by 17 points a week. Without overstating the obvious, the only conclusion is that this team is monumentally bad. They are obviously going to be the underdog in every game remaining and besides two remaining contests with Jacksonville, the margin is going to be more than a touchdown. After watching every second of the 2008 Lions, I can say with absolute certainty that the 2011 Colts are worse. That being said, this almost guarantees Indianapolis to have two of the most important quarterback assets in the league for the 2012 offseason. That is where the Colts are going to become very interesting. Whether they end up trading Luck or Manning, some team is going to become vastly improved at quarterback and drastically change the outlook of an unknown division next year. Personally, I think it will be better for everyone if Manning gets the boot. A pissed off Peyton playing for the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Redskins, or Niners? What could be better than that? Anyways, playing their cards right, the Colts should be back atop the division in two years with an incredible stockpile of young talent. Don’t expect anyone to feel sorry for you Indianapolis. Thirteen elite years followed by a bright future with one dud as the proverbial turd in the sandwich, I think you can make it. Next year’s draft is going to be a lot of fun but for this season, the Colts will never move off number 32. We shouldn’t even be talking about them until after the super bowl. In fact…
Let’s start the power rankings now. Here are the teams still playing in the NFL ranked 1-31:
31) Miami Dolphins (1-7)
Suck for Luck is officially over. Miami went out and whipped a Chiefs team with momentum and a share of the divisional lead in a stadium that has a real home field advantage. As the Monday morning quarterback, it is tough not to feel a little foolish about locking KC this past week. My big head prevents me from feeling that way however. As it turns out, the Giants are better than we thought which makes the Dolphins near win much more impressive. Tony Sporano and Miami clearly have no intention of tanking. They have been spunky. Moreover, it appears the team actually likes Sporano more than a little and wants to keep him around. Matt Moore looked halfway decent this week, Marshall was rejuvenated, Reggie can somehow run between the tackles now, and their defense can get to the quarterback. If the Dolphins play the way they did Sunday, they could find a way to play the second half of the season over .500. They really do have talent on this team. Ironically, the one position they really need to solidify to take the next step is QB. Too bad it’s a one horse race now, but hey, maybe Matt Barkley can be a franchise signal call too.
30) Seattle Seahawks (2-6)
I know a lot of people including ESPN is ranking the Seahawks a few spots higher than this but I disagree. Seattle’s positives are a surprisingly decent defense, a core of receivers based on potential, and running back that averages 11 games a season. I do not see enough young talent here to be confident about the team over the next few years. I would actually rather be a fan of 31 or 32. The one advantage Seattle has is their division just won’t be as perennially strong as AFC east or south so building a contender can occur much quicker. Just look and San Francisco. All it took was a coaching change them to go from a forgettable (6-10) to having a first round bye locked up by week ten. The best thing for Seattle to do is to realize right now that they will never be relevant with Tavaris Jackson leading the offense and turn the reins over to Whitehurst. Everyone knows Jackson blows and I am under the opinion Chaz does as well, but nothing is certain after only four career starts. With eight games left, they need to find out what they have and if Chaz is not the answer, it is time to move on for five reasons. One, the rookie salary scale makes whiffing on a pick infinitely less costly and two three four five: Newton, Dalton, Ponder, Gabbert. Not to mention Bradford last year and Stafford, Freeman, and Sanchez the year before. Young quarterbacks are coming into the league more prepared and the league has changed a number of rules that make it easier for them to succeed. Start deciding right now if you like Landry Jones or Matt Barkley more Pete Carroll.
29) Cleveland Browns (3-5)
While their three wins total more than five teams that haven’t appeared on this list, I could not in good conscience move Cleveland any higher. It is a dark time for Cleveland sports when their highlight of 2011 is the Indians finishing fifteen games back in the central. There was a lot of preseason buzz about this team with some of the opinion that they could be a dark horse in the AFC north. That could not be farther from reality. Their best player from 2010 has become estranged his teammates and likely has played his last game in brown and orange. Their defense has decent numbers but you have to remember they have only play two teams over .500 and their three wins are against teams that have only three combined wins themselves. I am not completely out on Colt Mccoy because he does not have a single NFL receiver to throw to but the leash is short on the Brown. This early in his career, it is not fair to ask him to carry this team week in and week out but he has to do it once or twice. Unlike the bottom feeders with only one or two wins, I do not believe the Browns have enough young talent to build around to bounce back this year or next. Piling on, they play in a division with two perennial Super Bowl contenders and have also now fallen light years behind a very promising team from across the state. Best case scenario for Cleveland is that they build the best offense line in football around their one stud Joe Thomas, prove Colt is actually good by acquiring some receivers, and continue to shine on special teams. We’ll move on from here because the worst case scenario is too dark.
28) Arizona Cardinals (2-6)
Even though Kevin Kolb is living the minimum expectations for a quarterback in Conference USA, I still do not understand why this team has only two wins. They have a true every down back, albeit an injury prone one, who can physically impose his will on defenses. Even though he isn’t allowed to prove it, Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game. On top of that, they have a defense who has a pass rush, young and veteran talent in the secondary, and a tough coach who studied under Bill Cowher. With all of these positives, they are two Patrick Peterson punt returns away from being tied with the Colts. And I picked them to win the division. I like their core players but it makes me really uneasy to lend my support to such an underachieving team that has so many negative signs. It is fun to see the Cardinals be good because of their fans and University of Phoenix stadium so I hope solving their quarterback problem is all they need, but I have a feeling Arizona’s issues run deeper.
27) Washington Redskins (3-5)
Here is the second team in a row outside of the top 25 that I picked preseason to win their division. I would like to have a disclaimer here because I am so sick of the other three teams in the east that I refuse to have any positive feelings for them and do not want to even accidentally root for them. Going into their BYE at (3-1), the Redskins got my hopes up so high that the Cowgirls, Giants, and Eagles would all be left out of the postseason. Alas, I will have to wait another year for that dream scenario. Nobody has been worse over the last four weeks than Washington. They have only mustered up a meager eleven points per contest while turning the ball over twelve times which leads to them being four point underdogs in Miami this week. Yikes. They may not win another game this season. The most depressing thing may be that they are the eighth highest paid team. Their one positive is that while their offense could be historically bad, their defense actually might be the best in the division if they are given a chance to prove it. They are young and can get to the quarterback. Like the Cardinals, this may be a team that can turn around their fortunes with the right signal caller. And no that is not John Beck or Sexy Rexy.
26) St. Louis Rams (1-7)
Outside of their record, there is a lot to like about this Rams team. They have holes but the things they do well they do well. On offense, Stephen Jackson can still carry a load but their future begins and ends with Sam Bradford. After having a rookie season where he really could not have played better, Bradford has hit a sophomore slump partially due to injury and partially due to his team playing awful. For him to improve, the first thing the Rams have to do is protect him. The team has allowed a whopping 31 sacks already which is worst in the league which contributed to Bradford missing two games. The second improvement needs to come in the form of actual NFL receivers. Adding Brandon Lloyd did a world of good and Injuries have played a large role in this problem but even with Danny Amendola and Greg Salas back, they aren’t anywhere near where they need to be to feel comfortable. With improvement in these areas, Bradford’s elite accuracy will lead him to stardom. The defensive positives for St. Louis come from their coach and two young defensive ends. Chris Long and Robert Quinn showed what is in store for the rest of the NFC west the last two weeks by wreaking havoc on Drew Brees and John Skelton. I see the Rams turning it around after a tough start and managing reach the dubious honor of first loser to the niners this year for the west crown.
25) Denver Broncos (3-5)
Do not let Tim Tebow’s (2-1) record as a starter fool you. This is a terrible football team. Granted of all the bad teams, they may be the most capable of pulling off an upset but they have the least assets moving forward. Aside from the young sack masters Miller and Dumervil and a slew of slot receivers, they have zero pieces that have a place on a winning football team. Their secondary is closer to social security than more pro bowls and two first round quarterbacks that are barley qualified as backups. I think John Fox is a really good coach, but being stuck in mediocrity, where the Broncos have been for a decade is not going to get this team anywhere. Trading their veterans for picks and bottoming out seems to be the only option for Denver at this point.
Make sure to heck back later this week for 24-1 and for my take on this Sunday's games.
Make sure to heck back later this week for 24-1 and for my take on this Sunday's games.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Week 9 Football Picks
Before I get to the NFL, I feel I cannot leave out Saturday night. Not often am I more excited for a college game than any game on the NFL slate, but the Lions are on bye and this LSU at Alabama game is a more anticipated and unique matchup than any game in recent memory. My only wish is that one of them played in the SEC east so we could have a chance to watch them play three times this year.
Bonus Pick – LSU +4.5 at Alabama
I am actually giddy with anticipation for this game. I am definitely not an SEC fanatic, but I love watching the best of the best play and that is exactly what this is. The importance of this game became even clearer when Oklahoma tripped up against the Red Raiders two weeks ago. The tragedy is that because of a weak Pac 12, the recent run by Oklahoma State, and Boise State pushing closer and closer to earning a championship opportunity every year, this will most likely be the BCS championship game part I and not in a good way. I find it hard to believe that with Stanford and Boise being mortal locks to remain undefeated along with at least a solid chance for the Cowboys, the loser of this game could hurdle two or three undefeateds for another chance at their SEC west counterpart. But I digress.
The game itself could not be more evenly matched. I had an intense debate over a few pints last night with my buddy who has his vote of confidence in the Tide. I conceded that Trent Richardson will be the best offensive player on the field and the fact that that field is in Tuscaloosa definitely provides a stiff argument for the Tide prevailing tomorrow night, but not covering. Outside of a Taint ending the last drive of the game, there is just no way that this game is not decided by a field goal much less than five or more points. I do believe the Tigers can pull this game out because of the nature this game. It will be tough, slow moving, and both teams will have to sweat for everything. For that reason, the team that comes up with the big plays especially late in the game will win. This will be LSU because they will win the turnover margin (season Tigers +15, Tide +6) and they will make more plays in the passing game (Tigers 16 td - 1int, Tide 10 td - 5 int). Moving on to Sunday.
It has been a tough year at win by 2 for NFL picks. After reaching page one of the standings for readers of the Sports Guy late in the 2010 season, 2011 has left me cold so far with a subzero less than .500 record. November will better, so now for week 9.
Season (56-60) Last week (6-7 surprisingly because I woke up at 230pm Sunday and was unable to pick any one o’clock games)
Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis
The Colts have showed a lot of want to all season throwing out that historically bad MNF game against the Saints. They fight, they claw, and they run the ball surprisingly well. Unfortunately, they just do not have the talent to get the job done against most teams and especially not the physically imposing offense of the Falcons coming off a bye week. Atlanta is finally healthy and two weeks ago man handled my Lions in a game that was only close because of two Ryan ints. This game will be close to over at half time and Turner will pound out eighty or more second half yards to shorten the contest and put it away.
Buffalo -2 vs NY Jets
This was one of the toughest games for me to pick this week. I like the Bills as most people do because it is a feel good story and they have fans that deserve a winner. Although the Jets looked good in their comeback win against San Diego, the win lost some luster during their bye week when the Chargers through away another one in a really big game against the Chiefs. New York should have lost that game and should be (3-4) and basically out of the divisional run. In the end, I cannot pick the Sanchise on the road in windy and cold Buffalo against a team that has a knack for causing turnovers. After giving up big plays early, the Jets will try to make it interesting late but will run out of time.
Cleveland +10.5 at Houston
It is time for the Texans to lay an egg. The killed Tennessee two weeks ago and their defense put away the Jags last week which has raised the expectations of the Houston fans to new heights. Until they prove me wrong, I will always believe you have to pick against the Texans when everything appears to be going right. I see Andre Johnson coming back for a quarter before limping of the field and some running back no one has ever heard of going for a buck sixty and three touchdowns. 10.5 is a lot of points so I’m taking them and Cleveland could definitely pull this out.
Dallas -11.5 vs Seattle
Classic blowout of a bad team coming here for the Cowgirls. I do not believe that Philly is as good or Dallas is as bad as they showed last week. The Cowboys running game is actually very good and I expect them to really take out their emotions on a banged up Seahawks team that is somehow in second place in their division at (2-5). This game will never be close.
Kansas City -4 vs Miami
This is one of my locks of the week. It has taken a lot of guts and guile for the Chiefs to pick themselves up off the floor after getting smacked around to start the year by two teams that were below average last season. As it turns out, the Bills and the Lions are both playoff contenders and believe it or not so are the Chiefs. In fact, they have to be the favorites to repeat as AFC west champs. They just split their season series with the Chargers and really looked like the better team. The Raiders have a mess of a qb situation and San Diego just does not look right. Give me the Chiefs because they know who they are and play damn hard. On another note, we know Miami is going (0-16) so they won’t pretend to keep this game close.
Tampa +8.5 at New Orleans
Got to take the points here. I know the Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to a team who’s season points total they had eclipsed in just four quarters the week before but their defense scares me and the Bucs play them well. I think Rhonde Barber picks of Brees once or twice and Blount has a solid game and a great fourth quarter to at least keep this close. 8.5 is just to many points.
San Francisco -3.5 at Washington
Another lock. Washington cannot be as bad as they were last week but they won’t have to be to lose by more than a field goal to San Francisco. The Niners are the prototypical team we like to root for here at win by 2 and why not. When healthy, they are an A or A+ at every unit except QB. They are arguably tops in the league at O-line, front seven, coaching coverage teams, kicking game, and even those classic red and golds. Even though quarterback is becoming more and more valuable in today’s game and I do not think they will be able to score enough to win in the playoffs, their chemistry is going to carry them to a first round bye. It isn’t time for them to stumble yet. On the other side of the coin, the skins probably still have the most complete defense in the division. Unfortunately, they are not good enough on defense to keep an offense in the game that has to rely on Fred Davis as their sole play maker. The skins won’t get shut out, but will probably give up close to nine sacks again and lose this one by at least a touchdown.
Cincinnati +3 at Tennessee
I couldn’t have more opposite opinions on these teams. I have to stick with the Bengals and take the points in this game because I know what I’m getting from them. They have a traditional grind it out offense but with the added dimension of having a legitimate game breaker on the outside in A.J. Green. They are a very good defense and they aren’t going to leave anything on the field. If this team loses it is because the other side played extremely well or is just more talented. On the other hand, I really do not know what to make of Tennessee. Hasselbeck has played exceptionally well considering he hasn’t had a running game and only had a number one receiver for two and a half games. Unfortunately, defenses have figured out how to play them. Unless Chris Johnson ends his talent lockout or Javon Ringer gets the keys to the car, Hasselbeck’s windows are only going to keep shrinking and the defense is going to get more and more exposed. I’ll keep riding the Bengals until they realize they are super young and are actually in playoff contention which will probably be coming soon.
Denver +7 at Oakland
The Raiders can get it together but I’ll have to see it first. Both of these teams are awful and Tebow gets garbage touchdowns. Take the points.
NY Giants +9 at New England
I can’t bring myself to give away nine points in this game for two reasons. One, I can’t see the Pats pulling away from any team that is halfway decent until they get their defense in order. Two, after watching the Giants the last few weeks and especially last week, I can’t help but feeling that they have been saving up for this game. I do not think they can win using the same game plan that Pittsburgh used last week but they will try and come close. Nine is just too many points.
St. Louis +3 at Arizona
Arizona is banged up and will be without their starting quarterback which may have been a good thing if their backup wasn’t John Skelton. Everyone was on St. Louis before the season so I have to believe the team they really are is closer to the week 8 Rams than the first seven. Their offense was efficient and Steven Jackson looked rejuvenated. Most interestingly, their defensive end combo was more than formidable. Quinn and Long have a lot of talent. I believe St. Louis left Jekyll behind after week 7.
Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego
Simply put, the Packers are too good to bet against a one possession line until they lose. More importantly though, one of these years Norv will not turn it around and will be out of our lives forever. Could the Chargers come out, win a close one here and end up 12-4? Sure. I am just not buying it with something clearly wrong with Rivers.
Pittsburgh -3 vs Baltimore
Two teams going the exact opposite directions. Flacco leading the Ravens to erase a 24-3 deficit would be impressive if it wasn’t at home against Arizona. Their offense has looked flat except for Anquan Boldin’s dominating performance last week. I haven’t seen him impose himself on a secondary since he left those same Cardinals. He won’t be able to out tough the Steelers by himself though. Pittsburgh has hit its stride after everyone was asking what was wrong with them just four weeks ago. After this rivalry game, they only have two loseable games left on the schedule and they know it. They control their own destiny for home field in the playoffs and this is their first step to cement it. Flacco turns it over three times and Roethlisberger is the best player on the field.
Chicago +7.5 at Philadelphia
The Eagles played a perfect game last week. Vick could do no wrong with a 130 Qb rating and no turnovers. The defense limited to Cowboys to barely over a quarter of possession. Lesean McCoy was gashing his way through wide open holes. Meanwhile, the Bears are an unassuming (4-3). There is nothing sexy at all about picking a stiff defense with a workmanlike offense. Looking deeper though, the Eagles are (3-4) with wins over only the Rams, Redskins, and the perfect performance last week. Chicago’s losses are at home against the undefeated Packers and at New Orleans and Detroit. All of those teams are better than Philly. Is it just me or have we all seen this game before? Whenever they look completely outmatched, Chicago’s defense keeps them in games while their offense and special teams make a few big plays allowing them to hang around and potentially steal one late. On the other hand, just when the Eagles blow somebody out and everyone is tooting their horn and start drinking Andy Reid Kool-Aid, they lay an egg and bring everyone back to reality. Not buying the Eagles. I think Chicago gets this one outright on Monday Night Football.
Make sure you read this week for my mid-season Super Bowl odds and check back to affirm I have no idea what I’m talking about. Oh and get outside and play something because if its beautiful in CNY it has to be gorgeous everywhere else.
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