Mid-Season NFL: Recap, Projection, and Smell Test

Wow, I cannot believe how much has changed from last week. I put together a rough draft before last week’s games and I am basically rewriting the whole thing. The Steelers can’t stop teams on third down, the Patriots can’t stop anyone, and I now feel I have to take the Ravens and New Jersey football seriously. I am glad I had the insight to give myself an extra seven days for mid-season rankings. This week were going to work our way from 32 to 1 based on teams’ outlook for the remainder of the 2011-2012 season. He we go starting with the dumpster fires. For the faint of heart, I will focus on the positives.

32) Indianapolis Colts (0-9)

Thank you Miami for making this call even easier. It is really weird watching the Colts because I definitely do not feel like they have given up. They put in an effort every game, try hard on defense, run the ball fairly well (4.5 ypc, 3 backs over 4.0), and are still losing by 17 points a week. Without overstating the obvious, the only conclusion is that this team is monumentally bad. They are obviously going to be the underdog in every game remaining and besides two remaining contests with Jacksonville, the margin is going to be more than a touchdown. After watching every second of the 2008 Lions, I can say with absolute certainty that the 2011 Colts are worse. That being said, this almost guarantees Indianapolis to have two of the most important quarterback assets in the league for the 2012 offseason. That is where the Colts are going to become very interesting. Whether they end up trading Luck or Manning, some team is going to become vastly improved at quarterback and drastically change the outlook of an unknown division next year. Personally, I think it will be better for everyone if Manning gets the boot. A pissed off Peyton playing for the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Redskins, or Niners? What could be better than that? Anyways, playing their cards right, the Colts should be back atop the division in two years with an incredible stockpile of young talent. Don’t expect anyone to feel sorry for you Indianapolis. Thirteen elite years followed by a bright future with one dud as the proverbial turd in the sandwich, I think you can make it. Next year’s draft is going to be a lot of fun but for this season, the Colts will never move off number 32. We shouldn’t even be talking about them until after the super bowl.  In fact…

Let’s start the power rankings now. Here are the teams still playing in the NFL ranked 1-31:

31) Miami Dolphins (1-7)

Suck for Luck is officially over. Miami went out and whipped a Chiefs team with momentum and a share of the divisional lead in a stadium that has a real home field advantage. As the Monday morning quarterback, it is tough not to feel a little foolish about locking KC this past week. My big head prevents me from feeling that way however. As it turns out, the Giants are better than we thought which makes the Dolphins near win much more impressive. Tony Sporano and Miami clearly have no intention of tanking. They have been spunky. Moreover, it appears the team actually likes Sporano more than a little and wants to keep him around. Matt Moore looked halfway decent this week, Marshall was rejuvenated, Reggie can somehow run between the tackles now, and their defense can get to the quarterback. If the Dolphins play the way they did Sunday, they could find a way to play the second half of the season over .500. They really do have talent on this team. Ironically, the one position they really need to solidify to take the next step is QB. Too bad it’s a one horse race now, but hey, maybe Matt Barkley can be a franchise signal call too.

30) Seattle Seahawks (2-6)

I know a lot of people including ESPN is ranking the Seahawks a few spots higher than this but I disagree. Seattle’s positives are a surprisingly decent defense, a core of receivers based on potential, and running back that averages 11 games a season. I do not see enough young talent here to be confident about the team over the next few years. I would actually rather be a fan of 31 or 32. The one advantage Seattle has is their division just won’t be as perennially strong as AFC east or south so building a contender can occur much quicker. Just look and San Francisco. All it took was a coaching change them to go from a forgettable (6-10) to having a first round bye locked up by week ten. The best thing for Seattle to do is to realize right now that they will never be relevant with Tavaris Jackson leading the offense and turn the reins over to Whitehurst. Everyone knows Jackson blows and I am under the opinion Chaz does as well, but nothing is certain after only four career starts. With eight games left, they need to find out what they have and if Chaz is not the answer, it is time to move on for five reasons. One, the rookie salary scale makes whiffing on a pick infinitely less costly and two three four five: Newton, Dalton, Ponder, Gabbert. Not to mention Bradford last year and Stafford, Freeman, and Sanchez the year before. Young quarterbacks are coming into the league more prepared and the league has changed a number of rules that make it easier for them to succeed. Start deciding right now if you like Landry Jones or Matt Barkley more Pete Carroll.

29) Cleveland Browns (3-5)

While their three wins total more than five teams that haven’t appeared on this list, I could not in good conscience move Cleveland any higher. It is a dark time for Cleveland sports when their highlight of 2011 is the Indians finishing fifteen games back in the central. There was a lot of preseason buzz about this team with some of the opinion that they could be a dark horse in the AFC north. That could not be farther from reality. Their best player from 2010 has become estranged his teammates and likely has played his last game in brown and orange. Their defense has decent numbers but you have to remember they have only play two teams over .500 and their three wins are against teams that have only three combined wins themselves. I am not completely out on Colt Mccoy because he does not have a single NFL receiver to throw to but the leash is short on the Brown. This early in his career, it is not fair to ask him to carry this team week in and week out but he has to do it once or twice. Unlike the bottom feeders with only one or two wins, I do not believe the Browns have enough young talent to build around to bounce back this year or next. Piling on, they play in a division with two perennial Super Bowl contenders and have also now fallen light years behind a very promising team from across the state. Best case scenario for Cleveland is that they build the best offense line in football around their one stud Joe Thomas, prove Colt is actually good by acquiring some receivers, and continue to shine on special teams. We’ll move on from here because the worst case scenario is too dark.

28) Arizona Cardinals (2-6)

Even though Kevin Kolb is living the minimum expectations for a quarterback in Conference USA, I still do not understand why this team has only two wins. They have a true every down back, albeit an injury prone one, who can physically impose his will on defenses. Even though he isn’t allowed to prove it, Larry Fitzgerald is still the best receiver in the game. On top of that, they have a defense who has a pass rush, young and veteran talent in the secondary, and a tough coach who studied under Bill Cowher. With all of these positives, they are two Patrick Peterson punt returns away from being tied with the Colts. And I picked them to win the division. I like their core players but it makes me really uneasy to lend my support to such an underachieving team that has so many negative signs. It is fun to see the Cardinals be good because of their fans and University of Phoenix stadium so I hope solving their quarterback problem is all they need, but I have a feeling Arizona’s issues run deeper.

27) Washington Redskins (3-5)

Here is the second team in a row outside of the top 25 that I picked preseason to win their division. I would like to have a disclaimer here because I am so sick of the other three teams in the east that I refuse to have any positive feelings for them and do not want to even accidentally root for them. Going into their BYE at (3-1), the Redskins got my hopes up so high that the Cowgirls, Giants, and Eagles would all be left out of the postseason. Alas, I will have to wait another year for that dream scenario. Nobody has been worse over the last four weeks than Washington. They have only mustered up a meager eleven points per contest while turning the ball over twelve times which leads to them being four point underdogs in Miami this week. Yikes. They may not win another game this season. The most depressing thing may be that they are the eighth highest paid team. Their one positive is that while their offense could be historically bad, their defense actually might be the best in the division if they are given a chance to prove it. They are young and can get to the quarterback. Like the Cardinals, this may be a team that can turn around their fortunes with the right signal caller. And no that is not John Beck or Sexy Rexy.

26) St. Louis Rams (1-7)

Outside of their record, there is a lot to like about this Rams team. They have holes but the things they do well they do well. On offense, Stephen Jackson can still carry a load but their future begins and ends with Sam Bradford. After having a rookie season where he really could not have played better, Bradford has hit a sophomore slump partially due to injury and partially due to his team playing awful. For him to improve, the first thing the Rams have to do is protect him. The team has allowed a whopping 31 sacks already which is worst in the league which contributed to Bradford missing two games. The second improvement needs to come in the form of actual NFL receivers. Adding Brandon Lloyd did a world of good and Injuries have played a large role in this problem but even with Danny Amendola and Greg Salas back, they aren’t anywhere near where they need to be to feel comfortable. With improvement in these areas, Bradford’s elite accuracy will lead him to stardom. The defensive positives for St. Louis come from their coach and two young defensive ends. Chris Long and Robert Quinn showed what is in store for the rest of the NFC west the last two weeks by wreaking havoc on Drew Brees and John Skelton. I see the Rams turning it around after a tough start and managing reach the dubious honor of first loser to the niners this year for the west crown.

25) Denver Broncos (3-5)

Do not let Tim Tebow’s (2-1) record as a starter fool you. This is a terrible football team. Granted of all the bad teams, they may be the most capable of pulling off an upset but they have the least assets moving forward. Aside from the young sack masters Miller and Dumervil and a slew of slot receivers, they have zero pieces that have a place on a winning football team. Their secondary is closer to social security than more pro bowls and two first round quarterbacks that are barley qualified as backups. I think John Fox is a really good coach, but being stuck in mediocrity, where the Broncos have been for a decade is not going to get this team anywhere. Trading their veterans for picks and bottoming out seems to be the only option for Denver at this point.

Make sure to heck back later this week for 24-1 and for my take on this Sunday's games.