Before I get to the NFL, I feel I cannot leave out Saturday night. Not often am I more excited for a college game than any game on the NFL slate, but the Lions are on bye and this LSU at Alabama game is a more anticipated and unique matchup than any game in recent memory. My only wish is that one of them played in the SEC east so we could have a chance to watch them play three times this year.
Bonus Pick – LSU +4.5 at Alabama
I am actually giddy with anticipation for this game. I am definitely not an SEC fanatic, but I love watching the best of the best play and that is exactly what this is. The importance of this game became even clearer when Oklahoma tripped up against the Red Raiders two weeks ago. The tragedy is that because of a weak Pac 12, the recent run by Oklahoma State, and Boise State pushing closer and closer to earning a championship opportunity every year, this will most likely be the BCS championship game part I and not in a good way. I find it hard to believe that with Stanford and Boise being mortal locks to remain undefeated along with at least a solid chance for the Cowboys, the loser of this game could hurdle two or three undefeateds for another chance at their SEC west counterpart. But I digress.
The game itself could not be more evenly matched. I had an intense debate over a few pints last night with my buddy who has his vote of confidence in the Tide. I conceded that Trent Richardson will be the best offensive player on the field and the fact that that field is in Tuscaloosa definitely provides a stiff argument for the Tide prevailing tomorrow night, but not covering. Outside of a Taint ending the last drive of the game, there is just no way that this game is not decided by a field goal much less than five or more points. I do believe the Tigers can pull this game out because of the nature this game. It will be tough, slow moving, and both teams will have to sweat for everything. For that reason, the team that comes up with the big plays especially late in the game will win. This will be LSU because they will win the turnover margin (season Tigers +15, Tide +6) and they will make more plays in the passing game (Tigers 16 td - 1int, Tide 10 td - 5 int). Moving on to Sunday.
It has been a tough year at win by 2 for NFL picks. After reaching page one of the standings for readers of the Sports Guy late in the 2010 season, 2011 has left me cold so far with a subzero less than .500 record. November will better, so now for week 9.
Season (56-60) Last week (6-7 surprisingly because I woke up at 230pm Sunday and was unable to pick any one o’clock games)
Atlanta -7 at Indianapolis
The Colts have showed a lot of want to all season throwing out that historically bad MNF game against the Saints. They fight, they claw, and they run the ball surprisingly well. Unfortunately, they just do not have the talent to get the job done against most teams and especially not the physically imposing offense of the Falcons coming off a bye week. Atlanta is finally healthy and two weeks ago man handled my Lions in a game that was only close because of two Ryan ints. This game will be close to over at half time and Turner will pound out eighty or more second half yards to shorten the contest and put it away.
Buffalo -2 vs NY Jets
This was one of the toughest games for me to pick this week. I like the Bills as most people do because it is a feel good story and they have fans that deserve a winner. Although the Jets looked good in their comeback win against San Diego, the win lost some luster during their bye week when the Chargers through away another one in a really big game against the Chiefs. New York should have lost that game and should be (3-4) and basically out of the divisional run. In the end, I cannot pick the Sanchise on the road in windy and cold Buffalo against a team that has a knack for causing turnovers. After giving up big plays early, the Jets will try to make it interesting late but will run out of time.
Cleveland +10.5 at Houston
It is time for the Texans to lay an egg. The killed Tennessee two weeks ago and their defense put away the Jags last week which has raised the expectations of the Houston fans to new heights. Until they prove me wrong, I will always believe you have to pick against the Texans when everything appears to be going right. I see Andre Johnson coming back for a quarter before limping of the field and some running back no one has ever heard of going for a buck sixty and three touchdowns. 10.5 is a lot of points so I’m taking them and Cleveland could definitely pull this out.
Dallas -11.5 vs Seattle
Classic blowout of a bad team coming here for the Cowgirls. I do not believe that Philly is as good or Dallas is as bad as they showed last week. The Cowboys running game is actually very good and I expect them to really take out their emotions on a banged up Seahawks team that is somehow in second place in their division at (2-5). This game will never be close.
Kansas City -4 vs Miami
This is one of my locks of the week. It has taken a lot of guts and guile for the Chiefs to pick themselves up off the floor after getting smacked around to start the year by two teams that were below average last season. As it turns out, the Bills and the Lions are both playoff contenders and believe it or not so are the Chiefs. In fact, they have to be the favorites to repeat as AFC west champs. They just split their season series with the Chargers and really looked like the better team. The Raiders have a mess of a qb situation and San Diego just does not look right. Give me the Chiefs because they know who they are and play damn hard. On another note, we know Miami is going (0-16) so they won’t pretend to keep this game close.
Tampa +8.5 at New Orleans
Got to take the points here. I know the Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to a team who’s season points total they had eclipsed in just four quarters the week before but their defense scares me and the Bucs play them well. I think Rhonde Barber picks of Brees once or twice and Blount has a solid game and a great fourth quarter to at least keep this close. 8.5 is just to many points.
San Francisco -3.5 at Washington
Another lock. Washington cannot be as bad as they were last week but they won’t have to be to lose by more than a field goal to San Francisco. The Niners are the prototypical team we like to root for here at win by 2 and why not. When healthy, they are an A or A+ at every unit except QB. They are arguably tops in the league at O-line, front seven, coaching coverage teams, kicking game, and even those classic red and golds. Even though quarterback is becoming more and more valuable in today’s game and I do not think they will be able to score enough to win in the playoffs, their chemistry is going to carry them to a first round bye. It isn’t time for them to stumble yet. On the other side of the coin, the skins probably still have the most complete defense in the division. Unfortunately, they are not good enough on defense to keep an offense in the game that has to rely on Fred Davis as their sole play maker. The skins won’t get shut out, but will probably give up close to nine sacks again and lose this one by at least a touchdown.
Cincinnati +3 at Tennessee
I couldn’t have more opposite opinions on these teams. I have to stick with the Bengals and take the points in this game because I know what I’m getting from them. They have a traditional grind it out offense but with the added dimension of having a legitimate game breaker on the outside in A.J. Green. They are a very good defense and they aren’t going to leave anything on the field. If this team loses it is because the other side played extremely well or is just more talented. On the other hand, I really do not know what to make of Tennessee. Hasselbeck has played exceptionally well considering he hasn’t had a running game and only had a number one receiver for two and a half games. Unfortunately, defenses have figured out how to play them. Unless Chris Johnson ends his talent lockout or Javon Ringer gets the keys to the car, Hasselbeck’s windows are only going to keep shrinking and the defense is going to get more and more exposed. I’ll keep riding the Bengals until they realize they are super young and are actually in playoff contention which will probably be coming soon.
Denver +7 at Oakland
The Raiders can get it together but I’ll have to see it first. Both of these teams are awful and Tebow gets garbage touchdowns. Take the points.
NY Giants +9 at New England
I can’t bring myself to give away nine points in this game for two reasons. One, I can’t see the Pats pulling away from any team that is halfway decent until they get their defense in order. Two, after watching the Giants the last few weeks and especially last week, I can’t help but feeling that they have been saving up for this game. I do not think they can win using the same game plan that Pittsburgh used last week but they will try and come close. Nine is just too many points.
St. Louis +3 at Arizona
Arizona is banged up and will be without their starting quarterback which may have been a good thing if their backup wasn’t John Skelton. Everyone was on St. Louis before the season so I have to believe the team they really are is closer to the week 8 Rams than the first seven. Their offense was efficient and Steven Jackson looked rejuvenated. Most interestingly, their defensive end combo was more than formidable. Quinn and Long have a lot of talent. I believe St. Louis left Jekyll behind after week 7.
Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego
Simply put, the Packers are too good to bet against a one possession line until they lose. More importantly though, one of these years Norv will not turn it around and will be out of our lives forever. Could the Chargers come out, win a close one here and end up 12-4? Sure. I am just not buying it with something clearly wrong with Rivers.
Pittsburgh -3 vs Baltimore
Two teams going the exact opposite directions. Flacco leading the Ravens to erase a 24-3 deficit would be impressive if it wasn’t at home against Arizona. Their offense has looked flat except for Anquan Boldin’s dominating performance last week. I haven’t seen him impose himself on a secondary since he left those same Cardinals. He won’t be able to out tough the Steelers by himself though. Pittsburgh has hit its stride after everyone was asking what was wrong with them just four weeks ago. After this rivalry game, they only have two loseable games left on the schedule and they know it. They control their own destiny for home field in the playoffs and this is their first step to cement it. Flacco turns it over three times and Roethlisberger is the best player on the field.
Chicago +7.5 at Philadelphia
The Eagles played a perfect game last week. Vick could do no wrong with a 130 Qb rating and no turnovers. The defense limited to Cowboys to barely over a quarter of possession. Lesean McCoy was gashing his way through wide open holes. Meanwhile, the Bears are an unassuming (4-3). There is nothing sexy at all about picking a stiff defense with a workmanlike offense. Looking deeper though, the Eagles are (3-4) with wins over only the Rams, Redskins, and the perfect performance last week. Chicago’s losses are at home against the undefeated Packers and at New Orleans and Detroit. All of those teams are better than Philly. Is it just me or have we all seen this game before? Whenever they look completely outmatched, Chicago’s defense keeps them in games while their offense and special teams make a few big plays allowing them to hang around and potentially steal one late. On the other hand, just when the Eagles blow somebody out and everyone is tooting their horn and start drinking Andy Reid Kool-Aid, they lay an egg and bring everyone back to reality. Not buying the Eagles. I think Chicago gets this one outright on Monday Night Football.
Make sure you read this week for my mid-season Super Bowl odds and check back to affirm I have no idea what I’m talking about. Oh and get outside and play something because if its beautiful in CNY it has to be gorgeous everywhere else.
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