Welcome to win by 2. I’ve been mulling over ideas on how to kick off this site and a midseason power rankings column debuting my five favorites seems like a meatball big enough to be eaten (or thrown by John Lackey). Instead of evaluating teams based on their accomplishments so far, we're going to take a look at the five teams most likely to represent their conference in the most important game of the year. Without further ado, here they are:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Super Bowl Chances: Better than a coin flip
Strengths: Coaching, experience, elite QB, receiving core, elite defense, true home field advantage.
Weaknesses: Porous offensive line, redzone scoring especially running, linebacker health
After a 2-2 start, Pittsburgh acquired a lot of doubters among the talking heads. It is not hard to see why the casual fan and the "what have you done for me lately" personalities on ESPN lost faith. Their two wins came via a Seahawks squad that cannot score on their own cheerleaders and a last second field goal against the 32nd best team in the league. They were physically dominated in a four score route and another that felt like it for the two games in the L column. Furthermore, everyone except the league’s richest back could run right up the middle on them. Instead of jumping ship, win by 2 looked ahead at the Steelers schedule and realized nobody had a chance to crack twenty on the steel curtain after week eight. Now they are 6-2, expunged king kong from his seemingly permanent perch on their back by man handling the Pats at Heinz, and are a week 9 win away from putting a stranglehold on their division and most likely being the one seed. I may take some heat for putting them ahead of the undefeated Packers but in my mind there are only two things that can stop Pittsburgh from repeating as AFC champs: 41/46 for 502 and 5 tds out of Brady in the AFC championship game or Ben wandering into a Harley dealership with some extra cash. Neither is off the table but my money is on Pitt to get it done.
2) Green Bay Packers (7-0)
Super Bowl Chances: A super bowl rematch has never looked more like a lock to me.
Strengths: Aaron Rodgers, receiving core, home field advantage, kicking game, some playoff experience
Weaknesses: Running game, pass defense, mediocre offensive line, clock management
They are number two and here’s why. Everyone wants to point to Rodgers because he looks unstoppable, the receivers always seem to be wide open, and the obvious fact that they have yet to be beaten and sport the best point differential in the league. What people are forgetting is that their defense has been mediocre. The only team they shut down was the Rams who were on life support until this week. Anyone can pass on them and the only team that has given up more yards through the air than the Pack is oddly enough number 3 on this list. Also, two win teams residing in the NFC North and South basements both had legitimate chances to tie or take the lead inside of the six minute mark of the fourth quarter. On top of this, for some weird reason they have also stopped getting to the quarterback. In their Super Bowl season last year, they were tied for second in the league with 47 sacks. This year to date: 17. On top of their overlooked defensive holes is their nonexistent running game. 25th in yards per carry is just not going to get it done when they are trying to put away good offenses in January. Unfortunately for them, the Saints are number one in points scored, the Lions are number two in points scored, the Eagles looked high flying Sunday night and the Packers will have to play two of them after New Years. All of that being said, Rodgers may be so good right now that these holes will not come into play. It actually feels weird when he throws an incompletion. In all likelihood, they won’t need a running game to play at Lucas Oil in February, but unlike the Steelers, they have more than one team that can expose their flaws in the playoffs.
3) New England Patriots (5-2)
Super Bowl Chances: The rest of the coin Pittsburgh hasn’t taken
Strengths: Experience, best coach/quarterback combo, experience, run defense, experience, double tight end packages, experience, Brady and Belicheck.
Weaknesses: Defensive backs, Brady’s refusal to move, pass rush, receiving core, defensive backs, refusal to stick to the run, pass rush, defensive backs.
If you couldn’t tell, the Patriots have clear strengths and weaknesses and they will be the reason they fail or succeed. At this point in the season, I really do not believe the Pats are complete enough to be labeled the third best team in football. For the same reason as the Steelers however, they are the third most likely team to play in Indy. I would love to see the Texans run all over them or the Bills play opportunistically again in the divisional round but it’s just not happening. The Patriots have very similar strengths and weaknesses to the Packers but they just don’t stack up on the outside. The Steelers spotlighted exactly why the Pats will fall short this year on Sunday. Their receivers cannot stretch the field shrinking Brady’s windows and they give opposing QBs all day to pick them apart. Brady, like Rodgers, has the ability to carry this team by himself but he has a smaller margin for error. They get a little more of a hall pass than most because of their experience but if a team can pressure with the front four and score some points, the Pats are legitimately underdogs and it’s as simple as that.
4) Detroit Lions (6-2)
Super Bowl Chances: We’ll know after the Thanksgiving match up with the Packers
Strengths: Talent, passing offense, defensive line, turnover margin, Calvin Johnson
Weaknesses: Inexperience, sloppy play, running game, depth at linebacker
I will feel much better about this pick with a win in Chicago after the bye. The wild cards in the NFC are coming out of the south and the north because despite the media attention, the east is mostly talent with no results and will not have two ten win teams while the west is the west. Therefore, the Lions are competing with Chicago for one spot and essentially would clinch going up 2 games with 6 to play after sweeping the season series. I have heard a lot of people try to say what Detroit’s strengths and weaknesses are this year as they burst onto the scene, but the fate of the season really rests on the shoulders of one man, and it is not Matt Stafford, it’s Jim Schwartz. Due to impeccable drafting and free agent signings that retained zero defensive starters from the 2008 team and only Megatron and a couple O-linemen on the other side of the ball, the Lions may be the most talented team in the league. They are overflowing with athleticism, speed, and depth everywhere. Regardless of how talented they are however, any team this young with this little experience will only go as far as their coach can take them. They show a lot of signs of an immature team. Their defense stays on the field because of a lot of third down penalties. They run before they catch the ball. Stafford hurries throws and wastes downs. Schwartz will need to find a way to use their age as a positive instead of a negative for Detroit to make its first Super Bowl appearance in 2012.
5) New Orleans Saints (5-3)
Super Bowl Chances: Outscoring the Packers, only team in the NFC that can
Strengths: Quarterback, running game, coaching, home field advantage
Weakness: Inconsistency, defense that has to cause turnovers
Two weeks ago, people thought the first NFC matchup of the year of a lock to be the last as well. Then the last three weeks happened: tough loss, historic offensive performance, miffing display of getting soundly beaten up. For that reason people are now questioning who the 5-3 NFC South leaders really are. Look, the Saints know how to lay an egg better than anyone. Every year, they drop a total stink bomb and mail in a road game against a bad team. Let it be known here first if you are on the fence. The Saints are really good and they will be a major factor come January. While their defense is very ordinary when it doesn’t get turnovers, they have the best coach in the NFC and the most well rounded offense in football. They can pass as well as anyone with Brees and have the receivers and the breakout star tight end to help. They are also the first team on this list to run the ball well all the time. Pittsburgh has similar numbers but couldn’t run through a shower curtain when inside the ten. The triple threat the Saints have in the backfield along with Sean Payton’s mind will be New Orleans’ biggest advantages come playoff time.
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